000
AXPZ20 KNHC 091518
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JAN 09 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH 8N78W 6N82W. ITCZ 6N110W 7N105W 5N140W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 
28N134W TO 12N140W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE AREA E OF 
THE TROUGH TO THE BAJA PENINSULA. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE IS 
FLOWING THROUGH THE RIDGE. A WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
IS CENTERED OVER SE NEW MEXICO WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING WSW 
ACROSS NW MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. A 105-130 KT 
JETSTREAM S OF THE TROUGH AND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS FROM 
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO TO THE BIG BEND 
OF TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO 
NEAR
17N97W TO EQUATOR AT 90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE 
AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS S OF 20N BETWEEN 85W-105W.
THE SUBSIDENCE IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THIS 
AREA.

SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 115W. ELY WINDS 
20-25 KT ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FROM 7N-15 W 
OF 125W. LARGE NLY SWELLS...8-11 FT...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA W 
OF 110W.

ELY WINDS TO 20 KT ARE BLOWING THROUGH THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO...ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO LESS THEN 20 KT TUE 
MORNING.

$$
DGS