000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090311
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JAN 09 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N77W TO 05N87W. THE ITCZ 
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N87W TO 08N130W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 
122W AND 126W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 
120 NM N OF AXIS W OF 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1026 MB HIGH PRES CENTER WAS LOCATED N OF THE AREA NEAR 
36N131W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 20N113W. THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN 
THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG 
TRADEWINDS FROM 08N TO 18N W OF 128W. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WITH 
PERIODS OF 16-18 SECONDS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SWELL 
TRAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE SE THROUGH THE FORECAST WATERS...WITH 
COMBINED SEAS 8 TO 10 FT CURRENTLY COVERING MUCH OF THE AREA W 
OF 100W. THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SE...REACHING 
THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS ALONG 91W BY MON EVENING...THEN THE NW 
COAST OF S AMERICA TUE NIGHT...WHILE SLOWLY SUBSIDING. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN 
ARE FLOWING THROUGH THE GAPS IN THE TOPOGRAPHY OVER NICARAGUA 
AND COSTA RICA INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. WINDS WILL PEAK AT 20 
TO 25 KT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE ADDED COMPONENT 
OF NOCTURNALLY DRIVEN KATABATIC WINDS AND THEN REDUCE TO AROUND 
20 KT THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. LITTLE CHANGE 
IN THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MON. AS THE AREA OF HIGH 
PRESSURE OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS WEAKENS EARLY NEXT WEEK... 
WINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS WILL DIMINISH. THIS WILL 
DIMINISH WINDS FUNNELING ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WITH 
WINDS EXPECTED TO FINALLY DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT MON NIGHT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION 
HAS TIGHTENED THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA. NWLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT PREVAIL N OF 26N. WINDS 
WILL SPREAD S THROUGH THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE GULF BY MONDAY 
MORNING. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION 
WILL WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL LOOSEN THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DIMINISH WINDS BELOW 20 KT BY TUE 
AFTERNOON.

$$
AL