000
AXPZ20 KNHC 081506
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN JAN 8 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 03N91W...THEN AS ITCZ AXIS 
TO 05N103W TO 06N120W TO 09N130W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N OF ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 129W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

A LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 37N132W ACROSS NW PORTION TO 15N 
144W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE E OF THE TROUGH IS ENHANCING
VERTICAL MOTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALOFT FROM LOW LEVEL 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDS FROM 
SOURCE REGION NEAR 14N135W TO WEST COAST OF MEXICO. ASCAT PASS 
AT 0700 UTC SHOWED STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INTO ITCZ BETWEEN
135W AND 140W FROM 25 KT NE WINDS MERGING WITH 5-10 KT E TO SE 
WINDS. EXPECT ACTIVE CONVECTION TO CONTINUE IN THIS AREA THROUGH 
MON...WITH FRESH TRADE WINDS N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 130W AND 140W.

LARGE AREA OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL COVERS WRN HALF OF DISCUSSION 
AREA WITH COMBINED SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE 
TO 7-10 FT THROUGH MON EXCEPT FOR AREA OF ENHANCED TRADE WIND 
ACTIVITY W OF 130W. A FRESH SURGE OF NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH A 
DYING COLD FRONT N OF THE AREA WILL REACH NW CORNER MON MORNING 
AND SPREAD SE THROUGH TUE WITH COMBINED SEAS 10-12 FT. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN 
ARE SPILLING INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH PEAK WINDS 20 TO 25 
KT DURING EARLY MORNING HOURS DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT THROUGHOUT 
THE DAY AND EARLY EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH MON 
NIGHT...BUT PEAK WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT TUE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION WILL TIGHTEN
THE PRES GRADIENT TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA...
AND NWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT IN N HALF OF THE GULF 
LATER TODAY...AND SPREAD S THROUGH THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE GULF 
BY MONDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6-8 FT BY THIS AFTERNOON. 

$$
MUNDELL