000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051515
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU JAN 5 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH 5N77W 4N78W 6N85W 5N91W. ITCZ 5N91W 9N125W 
4N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 210 NM N OF AXIS 
FROM 77W-79W AND WITHIN 100 NM N OF AXIS FROM 100W-110W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N140W TO 7N120W. DOWNSTREAM 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM 32N120W TO 12N111W. ABUNDANT 
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND RIDGE 
AXIS. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR 
THE BIG BEND OF TEXAS WITH A TROUGH FROM THE CIRCULATION ACROSS 
MEXICO TO 17N102W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AND STABLE AIR 
AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS S OF 15N BETWEEN 85W-100W IS 
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION IN THE AREA.

SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF 14N W OF 110W. ELY WINDS TO 20 KT ARE 
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FROM 6N-20N W OF 128W. 
LARGE NW SWELL COVER MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 115W.

HIGH PRES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT 
ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING STRONG NLY WINDS WITH 
THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WITH WINDS UP TO 30 KT. THESE 
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY FRI NIGHT. 

STRONG ELY WINDS ARE ALSO BLOWING THROUGH THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO...AGAIN WITH WINDS UP TO 30 KT ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE 
TO 20 KT EARLY SAT. 

$$
DGS