000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050957
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU JAN 5 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N77W TO 04N79W TO 06N87W...THEN AS 
ITCZ AXIS TO 04N98W TO 08N120W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 120W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 34N132W ACROSS NW PART 
OF THE AREA TO 26N144W. WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 31N132W
TO 16N108W. AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS FROM 06N TO 20N
W OF 128W. 8 TO 10 FT SEAS...PRIMARILY IN NW SWELL...COVER MUCH 
OF THE AREA W OF 112W. AN AREA OF CONFUSED SEAS IN MIXED NE AND 
NW SWELL WILL PREVAIL S OF 15N BETWEEN 110W AND 120W THROUGH FRI.
LARGE NW SWELL WITH COMBINED SEAS TO 20 FT HAS REACHED THE FAR 
NW PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. SEA HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE 
TO 13 FT WHILE SPREADING SE TO COVER MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 115W 
BY FRI NIGHT.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN GULF 
OF MEXICO HAS WEAKENED AND SHIFTED EAST...ALLOWING THE SURGE OF 
COLD AIR INTO THE CHIVELA PASS TO DIMINISH. SCATTEROMETER AND 
SURFACE DATA INDICATE WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW GALE FORCE. WINDS
TO 30 KT ARE STILL LIKELY AT TIMES TODAY...THEN DIMINISH BELOW 
20 KT BY LATE FRI AS THE AIR MASS N OF THE AREA MODIFIES FURTHER.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG EASTERLY GRADIENT WIND OVER THE 
WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS FLOWING THROUGH THE GAP IN THE MOUNTAINS 
OVER NICARAGUA INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. WINDS TO 30 KT TODAY 
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT THROUGH FRIDAY. 

GULF OF PANAMA...STRONG NORTHERLY GRADIENT FLOW OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PANAMA ISTHMUS INTO THE GULF OF 
PANAMA THROUGH TONIGHT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...STRONG HIGH PRES IN GREAT BASIN SUPPORTING
FRESH NW FLOW DOWN THE LENGTH OF THE GULF AS DEPICTED BY ASCAT 
PASS AT 1730 UTC. HIGH PRES WEAKENS TODAY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING 
BELOW 20 KT TONIGHT. 

$$
MUNDELL