000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040955
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JAN 4 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 04N78W TO 08N85W TO 04N95W...THEN 
ITCZ AXIS TO 08N121W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 90 NM N OF ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 112W AND 126W.      

...DISCUSSION...
A 1026 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 34N127W WITH SURFACE RIDGE 
EXTENDING SE TO 17N106W. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN AREA OF HIGH PRES 
AND THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING FRESH TRADE WINDS FROM 06N TO 12N W OF 
128W. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NW PORTION TODAY... 
THEN STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE. LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL FROM 
THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW PART OF THE AREA WED MORNING...WITH 
SEAS TO 20 FT. MEANWHILE EXISTING NW SWELL WITH HEIGHTS TO 13 FT 
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA W OF 110W.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS 
FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS PROMOTING STRONG GALE FORCE 
WINDS TO 45 KT OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. GAP WINDS IN EXCESS 
OF 20 KT ARE REACHING AS FAR W AS 109W...WITH SEAS TO 19 FT IN 
THE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS. WINDS TO MINIMUM GALE FORCE WILL 
PREVAIL THROUGH THU MORNING. 

GULFS OF FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO... STRONG EASTERLY GRADIENT FLOW 
ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE EFFECTS WILL ENHANCE GAP FLOW 
THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WITH WINDS REACHING GALE FORCE 
DURING AT NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY THIS 
EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU EVENING 
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 13 FT. FRESH E-NE IN THE GULF OF FONSECA 
ARE MERGING WITH THE WINDS FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. 

BUILDING N TO NE SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMBINED STRONG GAP 
WIND FLOW WILL COVER MUCH OF THE AREA S OF 15N BETWEEN 85W AND 
110W. THE SWELL WILL REACH TO 115W THU...WHERE IT WILL MIX WITH 
NW SWELL BETWEEN 110W AND 115W.

GULF OF PANAMA...STRONG NORTHERLY GRADIENT FLOW OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PANAMA ISTHMUS INTO THE GULF OF 
PANAMA THROUGH EARLY THU.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN 
OVERNIGHT...SUPPORTING FRESH NW FLOW TONIGHT AND THU.

$$
MUNDELL