000 AXPZ20 KNHC 021005 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC MON JAN 02 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1009 MB LOW PRES CENTER THAT INTERMITTENTLY FORMS ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 05N78W AND CONTINUES W TO 06N90W TO 05N99W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ...WHICH CONTINUES W TO 06N106W TO 07N115W TO 05N124W TO 07N134W AND TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 107W-110W. ...DISCUSSION... A LONG WAVE TROUGH AGAIN IS THE MAIN NOTED OVER THE REGION. IT EXTENDS FROM WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR ALASKA SSW THROUGH 32N133W TO SW OF THE AREA AT 22N140W AND TO NEAR 14N145W. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ACCOMPANIED BY VERY DRY UPPER AIR AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT NOW STRETCHES FROM NEAR 32N131W TO 26N140W. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN TO A TROUGH FROM 30N129W TO 25N140W BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A RATHER IMPRESSIVE BATCH OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA MIXING WITH NE SWELL...AND DRIVING COMBINED SEA HEIGHTS UP TO ABOUT 20 FT OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA. THESE LARGE SEAS ARE FORECAST BY THE NOAA WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE TO SUBSIDE TO AROUND 9 OR 10 FT BY THE TIME THEY REACH THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON TUE NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NE IS NOTED TO THE SE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM 18N132W TO 13N125W TO 09N117W TO 06N109W. WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH PRESSING EASTWARD LIFTING THE SHORTWAVE TO THE NE...THE UPPER PATTERN AHEAD OF THIS FEATURES IS MARKED AS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. A VERY POWERFUL EQUATORIAL UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM BRANCH TO THE W OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO INDUCE LOW TO MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE ITCZ...AND ADDED TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE RIDGE AREA IS ALL CONTRIBUTING TO THE GENERATION OF SOME CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ AS MENTIONED ABOVE. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE OVERCAST TO BROKEN MOSTLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BEING CHANNELED N AND NE UP OVER THE RIDGE IN THE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. ALTHOUGH THIS LARGE PLUME HAS NOT REACHED THE SW CONUS SOME OF THE MOISTURE DOES CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL OLD MEXICO S OF 25N EVENTUALLY CONCENTRATING INTO A PLUME ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE MOISTURE IS REINFORCED BY ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM FRONTAL CONVECTION OVER THE W/CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A SECOND LONGWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN N AMERICA AND CONTINUES S ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO A BASE OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC NEAR 06N94W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR ALOFT S OF OF 15N E OF 105W. THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE ABOVE DESCRIBED MID/UPPER MOISTURE IS JUST EDGING SLOWLY TO 105W. GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC... N-NE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO GALE FORCE WINDS OF 30-40 KT AS SUGGESTED BY THE HIGH RESOLUTION FROM 0402 UTC LAST NIGHT. THE VERY STRONG PRES GRADIENT OVER MEXICO WILL FURTHER STRENGTH THESE WINDS AS THEY FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND IN TO THE GULF THROUGH TODAY REACHING TO STORM STRENGTH OF 35-50 KT TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THESE STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY WED BEFORE DIMINISHING BACK TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE. THE ASSOCIATED SEAS ARE FORECAST TO PEAK UP TO 23 FT ON TUE WITH N AND NE SWELL PROPAGATING S ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 06N BETWEEN 93W AND 109W LATE TUE. GULF OF PAPAGAYO... FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO FUNNEL THROUGH NICARAGUA INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. PEAK WINDS WILL BE 20-25 KT DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT INCREASE TO 20-30 KT TUE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN. DOWNSTREAM SEAS ARE AT 6-8 FT BUT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 FT LATE TUE EVENING IN WATERS FROM 08N-12N BETWEEN 85W AND 903W...AND FURTHER BUILD TO 13 FT NEAR 09N89W ON WED. OF NOTE IS THAT GUIDANCE ONLY SUGGESTS NE WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT IN THE GULF OF FONSECA. GULF OF PANAMA... N-NE WINDS AT 20-25 KT FUNNELING S ACROSS PANAMA WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY LITTL CHANGE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS A WEAK 1009 MB LOW ON THE MONSOON TROUGH AT 05N78W REMAINS ABOUT STEADY STATE HELPING TO USHER THESE WINDS SWD FROM CENTRAL AMERICA TOWARDS THE MONSOON TROUGH AS ITS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION PROVIDES THIS IMPETUS. $$ AGUIRRE