000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020340 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC MON JAN 2 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1008 MB LOW PRES CENTER THAT INTERMITTENTLY FORMS ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 05N78W AND CONTINUES W TO 08N85W TO 05N96W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ...WHICH THEN CONTINUES W THROUGH AN EMBEDDED LOW PRES AT 08N115W THEN W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N113W TO 13N118W. ...DISCUSSION... A LONG WAVE TROUGH DOMINATES THE PACIFIC FROM ALASKA TO NEAR THE EQUATOR AT 137W. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ACCOMPANIED BY VERY DRY UPPER AIR AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N134W TO 26N140W. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN TO A TROUGH ALONG 30N130W TO 21N140W ON MON...A BATCH OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA MIXING WITH NE SWELL...AND DRIVING COMBINED SEA HEIGHTS UP TO ABOUT 20 FT. THESE LARGE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO ABOUT 12 FT BY THEY TIME THEY REACH THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON TUE NIGHT. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 12N115W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING N THROUGH 32N114W AND ACROSS THE WESTERN SEABOARD OF N AMERICA. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ENHANCED THE ITCZ RELATED CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED NEAR 10N116W...CURRENTLY IN A WEAKENING TREND. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED N FANNING OUT IN THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...AND MERGING WITH MOISTURE N OF 17N PRECEDING THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH. ALTHOUGH THIS LARGE PLUME HAS NOT REACHED THE SW CONUS SOME OF THE MOISTURE DOES CONTINUE E ACROSS CENTRAL OLD MEXICO S OF 25N EVENTUALLY CONCENTRATING INTO A PLUME ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS PLUME IS REINFORCED BY ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM FRONTAL CONVECTION THAT FLARED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE W CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A SECOND LONGWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN N AMERICA AND CONTINUES S ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO A BASE OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC AT 02N79W. THE UPPER LEVELS APPEAR VERY DRY S OF 10N E OF 100W...BUT THE LARGE AREA OF UPPER MOISTURE JUST DESCRIBED IS SPREADING E TOWARDS THE DEEP TROPICS S OF CENTRAL AMERICA. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC... NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO A MINIMAL GALE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND EXPECTED TO FURTHER INCREASE TO STORM STRENGTH OF 50-55 KT LATE MON WITH LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THESE STORM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SEAS ARE FORECAST TO 23 FT WITH N AND NE SWELL PROPAGATING S ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 06N BETWEEN 93W AND 109W LATE TUE. GULF OF PAPAGAYO... FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO FUNNEL THROUGH NICARAGUA INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. PEAK WINDS WILL BE 20-25 KT DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT INCREASE TO 20-30 KT TUE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN. DOWNSTREAM SEAS ARE AT 6-9 FT BUT WILL INCREASE TO 11 FT LATE TUE IN WATERS FROM 08N-12N BETWEEN 85W AND 93W...AND FURTHER BUILD TO 13 FT NEAR 09N89W ON WED. OF NOTE IS THAT GUIDANCE ONLY SUGGESTS NE WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT IN THE GULF OF FONSECA. GULF OF PANAMA... N-NE WINDS AT 20-25 KT FUNNELING S ACROSS PANAMA WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT TONIGHT THEN RESUME MON NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST WED NIGHT. $$ NELSON