000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011600
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN JAN 1 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N78W TO 08N86W TO 05N95W...THEN AS 
ITCZ TO 09N125W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE-STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 112W AND 120W. 

...DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG 140W MOVING
WEST WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE ENTERING 
NW PART OF DISCUSSION AREA. GALE FORCE WINDS FROM SCATTEROMETER 
DATA AT 0800 UTC NW OF THE FRONT ARE GENERATING LARGE NW SWELL 
WHICH WILL SWEEP INTO NW PORTION OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH 
COMBINED SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 20 FT BY MON MORNING. THE FRONT 
WILL WEAKEN THEN DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST. WINDS NEAR
THE FRONT WILL BE 20-25 KT TODAY BUT DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT TONIGHT
AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS NORTHWARD.
 
HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY AND THE 
ZONE OF FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SECTION OF THE AREA 
HAS BECOME NEGLIGIBLE. SCATTEROMETER MOSAIC FROM PAST 6-12 HOURS 
SHOWS WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT OVER NEARLY ALL THE REMAINING AREA 
EXCEPT FOR SMALL AREA OF GAP WINDS NEAR THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. 
GAP WINDS ARE ALSO OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF PANAMA N OF 06N AND 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN CONTINUE 
TO FUNNEL THROUGH NICARAGUA INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. PEAK WINDS
WILL BE 20-25 KT DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. 
DOWNSTREAM SEAS WILL BE 6-8 FT BRIEFLY TO 9 FT DURING PEAK WINDS.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MEXICO IS ENHANCING NORTHERLY WINDS 
FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 
WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT 
THAT WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...REACH MINIMAL GALE 
FORCE BY EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN BECOME STORM STRENGTH AROUND 
50 KT LATE MON NIGHT. WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE BUILDS MAXIMUM SEAS TO 
NEAR 19 FT LATE MON NIGHT JUST DOWNSTREAM OF STORM FORCE WINDS.
     
GULF OF PANAMA...
FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL FUNNEL ACROSS 
PANAMA TODAY...THEN DIMINISH THIS EVENING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN 
MON NIGHT. SW MONSOONAL FLOW S OF THE GULF WILL MAINTAIN A WEAK 
LOW EXPECTED TO LINGER NEAR 05N79W FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

$$
MUNDELL