000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241525
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JAN 24 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 04N77W TO 07N84W TO 05N88W TO 03N111W TO 
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
FROM 04N TO 06N E OF 80W.

...DISCUSSION...
A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 36N138W THAT EXTENDS A SURFACE 
RIDGE AXIS SE TO 15N105W. THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF 20 KT TRADES 
ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 
123W AND 135W AND FROM 12N TO 20N W OF 135W THAT WAS CAPTURED ON 
EARLY MORNING ASCAT PASSES BETWEEN 24/0536 UTC AND 24/0722 UTC. 
SEAS REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 11 FT RANGE OVER THIS AREA DUE TO LONG 
PERIOD NW SWELL. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY 
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND BEGIN GRADUALLY WEAKENING BY EARLY 
WEDNESDAY. AS THE WEAKENING TREND OCCURS...A SMALL AREA OF FRESH 
TRADES WILL REMAIN FROM 15N TO 20N W OF 134W. THEREAFTER...A 
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW IS FORECAST NW 
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA TO INTRODUCE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER 
THE NW CORNER BY LATE THURSDAY. SEAS 10 TO 11 FT IN NW SWELL ARE 
EXPECTED TO OCCUPY THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 135W AS THE SYSTEM 
DEEPENS AND MOVES NORTH INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA REGION.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE 
OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION AND A TROUGH OVER NW MEXICO IS 
SUPPORTING STRONG NW WINDS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. 
THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY 
AND WEAKEN THROUGH TUE. WINDS OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL 
DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT LATE TONIGHT.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE AREA. 
CURRENTLY...8 TO 11 FT SEAS PREVAIL W OF 106W. THIS SWELL WILL 
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SE...WITH 8 TO 10 FT SEAS PREVAILING OVER 
MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 95W BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. 

GAP WINDS...
FRESH NE TO E 20 KT WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT THROUGH 
TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 KT ARE ALSO OVER THE GULF OF 
PANAMA ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT LATER THIS 
EVENING.

LOOKING AHEAD...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE 
GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY. BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO FILTER THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND ISTHMUS INTO THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY 26/1200 UTC PRODUCING N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.

$$
HUFFMAN