000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301000
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU DEC 30 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS FROM 07N78W TO 04N100W TO 08N116W TO 08N130W TO 07N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS FROM 110W TO 121W.

...DISCUSSION...
LARGE AMPLITUDE DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 32N114W TO  
23N127W USHERS WEAK COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN PART OF BASIN 
APPROACHING NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST.  FRESH SW WINDS 
EXPECTED N OF 29N IN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WHILE SE HEIGHT REMAIN 
UNDER 8 FT.  STRONG NW BREEZE HUGS PACIFIC COAST TODAY AND FRI  
THEN DIMINISH UNDER 20 KT.  SWELLS 9-10 FT LINGER FOR EXTRA 
COUPLE OF DAYS AFTER WIND DIES.  COLD FRONT LOSES UPPER SUPPORT 
SAT AND BROAD RIDGE BUILDS IN ITS WAKE ACROSS MOST OF E PAC LATE 
SAT.  RIDGE THEN SHIFT SE AND WEAKEN DIMINISHING NE TRADES TO A 
MODERATE BREEZE.  

PERSISTENT LOW PRES 1008 MB SW OF PANAMA FORCES FRESH TO STRONG 
SW BREEZE IN ITS SE QUADRANT AND HAS SOME ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT.  MODEL GUIDANCE RECOGNIZES LOW 
PRES AND MAINTAIN IT STATIONARY WITH NO SIGN OF INTENSIFICATION.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
FRESH NE BREEZE DIMINISHES WITHIN 12 HRS AS SOURCE OF WIND IN 
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHUTS OFF.  OTHER PREVIOUSLY GAP WIND EVENTS 
HAVE ALREADY SUBSIDED.  

HIGH PRES 1022 MB BUILDS N OF 20N IN WAKE OF WEAK COLD FRONT.  
PRESENT FRESH NE TRADES DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND WEAKEN BY LATE 
FRI AND SAT. 

$$
WALLY BARNES