000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292156
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED DEC 29 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS FROM FROM LOW PRES 1007 MB AT 05N78W TO 04N84W TO 07.5N120W 
TO 08N131W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 150 NM S OF LOW AND AXIS E OF 
84W. 

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH N OF 30N HAS MOVED INTO 
CALIFORNIA TODAY...AND EXTENDED SW TO 28N122W. AN ASSOCIATED 
COLD FRONT WAS JUST 60-90 NM BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH AND WAS 
CROSSING 30N AT 1800 UTC. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SE  AND 
REACH FROM CENTRAL BAJA TO 24N125W BY THU MORNING. STRONG NW 
TO N WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...ALONG WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 
TO 13 FT OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH ON 
THU...REACHING FROM SOUTHERN BAJA TO 21N122W BY LATE 
THU...BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY FRI. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL 
DIMINISH THU NIGHT AS THE SUPPORTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS 
EASTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES. 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTERED 
NEAR 39N141W HAS ABSORBED A WEAKER HIGH TO THE S...WITH RIDGE 
EXTENDING S INTO THE SUBTROPICS. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT SE AND 
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND ALLOW STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM 
THE ITCZ TO 20N W OF 125W TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY IN INTENSITY AND 
AREAL COVERAGE. ASSOCIATED MIXED NE AND NW SWELL OF 8 TO 10 FT 
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY LATE FRI.  

E OF 110W...IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E 
FLOW THROUGH THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS 
SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THIS 
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FOR THE MOST PART THU AS THE 
GRADIENT FLOW DIMINISHES. FURTHER SOUTH...A PERSISTENT 
QUASI-STATIONARY 1008 MB SURFACE LOW OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST S 
OF PANAMA NEAR 05N78W IS SUPPORTING A DEVELOPING CLUSTER OF 
CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER...AND FRESH SW FLOW S 
THROUGH SW OF THE CENTER. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AN AFTERNOON ASCAT PASS REVEALED THAT S TO 
SW WINDS IN THE N PART OF THE GULF HAD INCREASED 20 TO 25 KT IN 
ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT W 
TO NW AT 20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT THU MORNING WHILE SOME SMALL 
ZONE OF SWLY FLOW NEAR 20 KT WILL CONTINUE S OF THE FRONT AS IT 
SHIFTS SE INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS THROUGH THU AFTERNOON...BEFORE 
WINDS DIMINISH ON BOTH SIDES OF FRONT THU NIGHT.

$$
STRIPLING