000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291543
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED DEC 29 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ANALYZED FROM LOW PRES 1008 MB NEAR 08N78W TO 06N87W TO 
05N97W TO 09N118W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG WITHIN 60 NM OF LOW PRES.

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH N OF 30N WILL MOVE 
THROUGH THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY LATE TODAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD 
FRONT WILL PUSH S OF 30N THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING FROM CENTRAL 
BAJA TO 24N125W BY THU MORNING. STRONG NW TO N WINDS WILL FOLLOW 
THE FRONT...ALONG WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 13 FT OVERNIGHT. 
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH ON THU...REACHING FROM SOUTHERN 
BAJA TO 21N122W BY LATE THU...BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY FRI. 
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH THU AS THE SUPPORTING SHORT 
WAVE TROUGH LIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES. 1024 MB SURFACE 
HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 27N136W WILL WEAKEN THIS MORNING...THEN 
BE ABSORBED INTO STRONG HIGH PRES MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT 
FROM THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC. THIS WILL ALLOW STRONG TRADE WINDS 
FROM THE ITCZ TO 20N W OF 125W TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY IN INTENSITY 
AND AREAL COVERAGE. ASSOCIATED MIXED NE AND NW SWELL OF 8 TO 10 
FT WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY LATE FRI.  

E OF 110W...IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E FLOW 
THROUGH THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTHERN 
CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THIS FLOW IS 
EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FOR THE MOST PART THU AS THE GRADIENT FLOW 
DIMINISHES. FURTHER SOUTH...A PERSISTENT QUASI-STATIONARY 1008 
MB SURFACE LOW OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST S OF PANAMA NEAR 04N78W 
IS SUPPORTING A DEVELOPING CLUSTER OF CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF 
THE CENTER...AND FRESH SW FLOW S OF THE CENTER. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...FRESH TO STRONG SW FLOW WILL COMMENCE THIS 
MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA...SHIFT TO 
THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT THU MORNING...THEN DIMINISH THROUGH LATE 
THU.

$$
CHRISTENSEN