000 AXPZ20 KNHC 290335 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC WED DEC 29 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0200 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS ANALYZED FROM 08N81W TO 05N90W TO 06N100W TO 08N116W TO 08N126W TO 05N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NEAR AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE NOTED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 15N107W TO 17.5N102W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 100W...THE UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED WWD INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. A SHARP MIDDLE TO UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SW UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO SHIFT E-SE...AND EXTENDED SW ACROSS SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO A BROAD TROUGH AT 13N124W. A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDED WWD FROM THERE TO A WEAKENING MID LEVEL VORTEX NEAR 17N141W. A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE W OF 145W WAS STRETCHING NE AND E AND INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE WRN U.S. UPPER TROUGH. A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH N OF THE RIDGE WAS RACING EAST WHILE DIGGING SE INTO NORTH PORTIONS OF THE RIDGE S OF 40N. TO THE S OF THE TROUGH VERY BROAD CYCLONIC CURVATURE WAS NOTED IN THE WLY FLOW ALOFT...TURNING FROM NW TO W NEAR 130W THEN TURNING MORE SWLY FROM 120W EWD. A SUBTROPICAL JET LOCATED TO THE SE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA WAS PRODUCING SPEED DIVERGENCE AND AIDING IN VENTING THE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OFF THE SW COAST OF MEXICO MENTIONED ABOVE. OTHERWISE...A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT PREVAILED S OF 20N E OF 120W. THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE GENERALLY E DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE THE SW PORTIONS SINKS SLOWLY S...EVOLVING INTO A NARROW SW TO NE ALIGNED TROUGH AXIS BY THU. A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED NEAR 28N132W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO THE CONVECTION OFF THE SW COAST OF MEXICO. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT W AND WEAKEN THROUGH 24 HOURS...AS THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE W WEAKENS. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH S OF 30N E OF THE HIGH PRES ON WED...AND EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL BAJA COAST TO 24N140W BY THU MORNING...FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS. FURTHER SOUTH...A BROAD SWATH OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM THE ITCZ TO 20N W OF 125W WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AND SHIFT W AS THE HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS WEST. WAVEWATCH III INDICATED SEAS OF 8 TO 13 FT IN THE AREA OF TRADES...DUE IN PART TO PREVAILING LONG PERIOD NW SWELL. SEAS ACROSS THE REGION ARE GENERALLY DOMINATED BY THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL...WHICH WILL FADE THROUGH FRI. AN ADDITIONAL PULSE OF N SWELL WILL PUSH DOWN THE BAJA COAST AND OFFSHORE WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH SEA HEIGHTS BUILDING 8 TO 17 FT AT 8 TO 12 SECONDS. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A MORNING WINDSAT PASS SHOWED STRONG NLY WINDS TO 30 KT PERSISTING THROUGH THE GULF AND VEERING NE DOWNSTREAM. HOWEVER HIGH PRES IS WEAKENING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND HAS TURNED SELY ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND FALL BELOW 20 KT BY WED AFTERNOON. GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA...RECENT ASCAT PASSES SHOW NELY 20 TO 25 KT GAP FLOW PERSISTING THROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULFS TO THE ITCZ ALONG ABOUT 100W....WHERE SEAS WERE 8 TO 9 FT. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS FONSECA WINDS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT... ALTHOUGH NOCTURNAL AND EARLY MORNING DRAINAGE FLOW MAY REACH 20 KT EACH OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE STRENGTH AND AREAL EXTEND OF PAPAGAYO WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THU AND GRADUALLY BECOME A SMALL NARROW PLUME TO 20 KT. GULF OF PANAMA...WITH THE NLY FLOW ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN HAVING VEERED NE TODAY...WINDS ARE NOT LONGER HOWLING ACROSS PANAMA AND THROUGH THE GULF AND IT APPEARS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW 20 KT THERE. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SWLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THE GULF AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SHIFT NW AROUND 20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES SE THROUGH THU. $$ STRIPLING