000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282159
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE DEC 28 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ANALYZED FROM 08N82W TO 04N96W TO 08N118W TO 07N124W TO 
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 84W AND 93W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED 
WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 103W AND 106W.

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG NOTED WITHIN 75 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF LINE 13N110W TO 17N103W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 105W...THE UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED 
WWD INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SW 
UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO SHIFT E-SE...AND EXTENDED S-SW TO 
24N111W THEN CONTINUED SW TO 11N122W. A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH 
EXTENDED WWD FROM THE BROAD SW PORTION OF THIS TROUGH TO A MID 
LEVEL VORTEX NEAR 17N141W. A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE W OF 145W WAS 
STRETCHING NE AND E BEHIND THE WRN U.S. UPPER TROUGH. A VIGOROUS 
SHORT WAVE TROUGH N OF THE RIDGE WAS RACING EAST WHILE DIGGING 
SE INTO NORTH PORTIONS OF THE RIDGES OF 40N. A 1028 MB SURFACE 
HIGH PRES AREA CENTERED NEAR 28N131W WILL SHIFT W AND WEAKEN 
THROUGH 24 HOURS...AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS. A COLD FRONT 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH S OF 30N E 
OF THE HIGH PRES ON WED...AND EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL BAJA COAST 
TO 24N140W BY THU MORNING...FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG N 
WINDS.  FURTHER SOUTH...A BROAD SWATH OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE 
WINDS FROM THE ITCZ TO 20N W OF 125W WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AND 
SHIFT W AS THE HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS WEST. 
WHILE THERE ARE NO RECENT DATA TO CORROBORATE...WAVEWATCH III 
MODEL INITIALIZATION HINTS OF 8 TO 13 FT IN THE AREA OF 
TRADES...DUE IN PART TO NW AND NE SWELL. OTHERWISE...SEAS ACROSS 
THE REGION ARE DOMINATED BY LONG PERIOD NW SWELL...WHICH WILL 
GENERALLY DIMINISH THROUGH FRI...ALTHOUGH AN ADDITIONAL PULSE OF 
N SWELL WILL PUSH DOWN THE BAJA COAST BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH 
SEA HEIGHTS BUILDING 8 TO 17 FT AT 8 TO 11 SECONDS.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A MORNING WINDSAT PASS SHOWED STRONG NLY 
WINDS TO 30 KT PERSIST THROUGH THE GULF AND VEERING NE 
DOWNSTREAM. HOWEVER HIGH PRES IS WEAKENING ACROSS THE GULF OF 
MEXICO AND HAS TURNED SELY ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND 
WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THIS 
EVENING AND FALL BELOW 20 KT ON WED.

GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA...RECENT ASCAT PASSES SHOW NELY 20 
TO 25 KT GAP FLOW PERSISTING THROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULFS 
TO THE ITCZ ALONG ABOUT 100W....WHERE SEAS WERE 8 TO 10 FT. 
MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS FONSECA WINDS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT... 
ALTHOUGH NOCTURNAL AND EARLY MORNING DRAINAGE FLOW MAY REACH 20 
KT EACH OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE STRENGTH AND AREAL EXTEND OF 
PAPAGAYO WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THU AND GRADUALLY BECOME A 
SMALL NARROW PLUME TO 20 KT.

GULF OF PANAMA...WITH THE NLY FLOW ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN 
HAVING VEERED NE TODAY...WINDS ARE NOT LONGER HOWLING ACROSS 
PANAMA AND THROUGH THE GULF AND IT APPEARS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED 
BELOW 20 KT THERE. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS.

$$
STRIPLING