000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281554
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE DEC 28 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES AT 06N78W 1009 MB TO 04N92W TO 
08N122W TO 06N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...THE UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE 
AMPLIFIED. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SW UNITED STATES 
TO 12N122W...AHEAD OF RIDGE ORIENTED N-S WEST OF THE AREA ALONG 
150W. A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH NW OF THE RIDGE IS DIGGING 
EAST...TO THE NORTH OF RIDGE. A 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES AREA 
CENTERED NEAR 29N131W WILL SHIFTS W AND WEAKEN THROUGH 24 
HOURS...AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH S OF 30N E OF THE HIGH 
PRES ON WED...AND EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL BAJA COAST TO 24N127W 
BY EARLY THU...FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS. FURTHER 
SOUTH...A BROAD SWATH OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM THE 
ITCZ TO 20N W OF 125W WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AS THE HIGH PRES TO 
THE NORTH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS WEST. WHILE THERE ARE NO RECENT 
DATA TO CORROBORATE...WAVEWATCH III MODEL INITIALIZATION HINTS 
OF 8 TO 13 FT IN THE AREA OF TRADES...DUE IN PART TO NW AND NE 
SWELL. MOST OF THE NW SWELL WILL DIMINISH THROUGH FRI...ALTHOUGH 
ADDITIONAL N SWELL WILL PUSH DOWN THE BAJA COAST BEHIND THE 
FRONT...WITH HEIGHTS 8 TO 13 FT AND PERIODS IN FRESH SWELL.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...STRONG N WINDS PERSIST THROUGH THE GULF. A 
SHIP REPORT NEAR 11N97W REPORTED WINDS TO 25 KT AT 12Z. 
WAVEWATCH III INITIALIZES WITH RESIDUAL 8 FT SEAS IN NE SWELL 
FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 95W AND 107W. WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRES N OF 
THE AREA MODERATES AND SHIFTS EAST. 

GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA...A COUPLE OF SHIP REPORTS SUPPORT 
MODEL INITIALIZATIONS SHOW 20 TO 25 KT GAP WIND FLOW AIDED BY 
OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE IN THE GULFS OF FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO. STRONG 
WINDS AND SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT EXTEND AS FAR OUT AS 500 NM FROM 
PAPAGAYO. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THESE AREAS DIMINISHING THROUGH 
WED.

GULF OF PANAMA...EARLIER SHIP AND ASCAT DATA SHOW FRESH TO 
STRONG WINDS PERSISTING THIS MORNING THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA. 
THIS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH WED AS N FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN 
VEERS MORE EASTERLY.

$$
CHRISTENSEN