000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280945
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE DEC 28 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 06N80W TO 08N110W TO 05N135W TO 06N140W. 
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS E PAC FROM 32N113W TO 02N119W 
MAINTAINS DRY AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM EXCEPT MINOR AMOUNT OF 
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ADVECTED NE FROM WEAK TROUGHS IN VICINITY OF 
120W.  MORE MOISTURE MOVES INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF BASIN 
RIDING 95 KT JET CORE JUST UPSTREAM FROM TROUGH AXIS.  BUILDING 
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED AT 21N140W BRINGS SUPPORT TO SURFACE HIGH 
PRES CENTER AT 29N130W...WHETHER THAT SUPPORT IS ENOUGH TO BLOCK 
NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT FROM INTRUDING S INTO BASIN IS STILL 
UNCERTAIN.  AMPLIFIED RIDGE COVER AREA N OF 12N W OF 120W 
PROMPTS LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE FROM 06N TO 20N W 
OF 120W.  LARGE NW SWELLS PROPAGATE SE FROM AS FAR S AS 10N AND 
E TO 115W.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE EVENT EXPIRED...BUT PLUME OF STRONG N 
TO NE WINDS STILL AFFECT WATERS OFF GULF.  RESIDUAL NE SWELL 
GENERATED BY GAP EVENT EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY THU FROM 
07N TO 12N BETWEEN 100W AND 108W.

GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA...TIGHT PRES GRADIENT FOLLOWS 
STRONG COLD FRONT THAT ENTERED WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH NEAR GALE 
N TO NE WINDS MAKING IT ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO GULFS OF 
FONSECA...PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA THROUGH END OF FORECAST PERIOD.  
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW FONSECA DIMINISHING IN LESS THAN 24 HRS WITH 
PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA LASTING THROUGHOUT FORECAST AT DIMINISHED 
STRENGTH. 

$$
WALLY BARNES