000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272156
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON DEC 27 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 09N84W TO 04N92W TO LOW PRES 1012 MB AT 07N118W TO 
07N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...THE UPPER PATTERN IS BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED AS A 
DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 07N120W WHICH 
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING AND DEEPEN OVER NW 
MEXICO...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ALONG 138W. THE 
ASSOCIATED STRONG 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 
31N129W AND IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SW VARYING LITTLE IN STRENGTH 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ASCAT AND SHIP DATA SHOW 20 KT FLOW OFF 
THE BAJA COAST N OF 25N BETWEEN 115W AND 122W. A SHORTWAVE 
TROUGH NW OF HAWAII WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH OF THE RIDGE IN THE 
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...AND DIG INTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY EARLY 
WED. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT SW AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS A 
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH S OF 
30N BY 29/1800 UTC...FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N WINDS E 
OF 132W. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY S 
OF THE SURFACE HIGH W OF 120W...THEN DIMINISH WED INTO THU AS 
THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH WEAKENS. MEANWHILE LONG PERIOD NW 
SWELL MAINLY N OF 15N WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH WED. MIXED NW AND NE 
SWELL OF 8 TO 12 FT WILL PERSIST WHERE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES 
PREVAIL THROUGH TUE THEN DIMINISH TO 8 TO 10 FT BY LATE WED.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...LATEST REPORTS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS 
FROM IXTEPEC NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE ISTHMUS OF 
TEHUANTEPEC ARE INDICATING A DOWNWARD TREND OF THE MAXIMUM 
WIND...HOWEVER...WINDS TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE OVER THE NEAR SHORE 
WATERS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH 
28/0000 UTC. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE 
LATER THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA WEAKENS AND 
SHIFTS E. FURTHERMORE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO BELOW 20 KT BY 
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY NE SWELL GENERATED BY THE GAP WINDS 
PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY COVERING THE AREA FROM 07N TO 12N 
BETWEEN 100W AND 108W.

GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA...A 27/1610 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED 
NE WINDS TO 25 KT REACHING WEST OF 90W ORIGINATING NEAR THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO AREA NEAR 11N86W. THIS FLOW WAS DUE TO STRONG 
GRADIENT N-NE FLOW AIDED BY LOCAL DRAINAGE EFFECTS. BOTH THE GFS 
AND ECMWF SHOW THE FONSECA WINDS REOCCURRING MONDAY NIGHT INTO 
TUESDAY MORNING. SINCE PAPAGAYO WINDS ARE LESS DEPENDENT ON 
DRAINAGE EFFECTS...EXPECT AT LEAST 20 KT FLOW INCREASING TO AS 
HIGH AS 30 KT OVERNIGHT WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT POSSIBLE IN A 
PLUME OF NE SWELL OUT AS FAR AS 600 NM. 

GULF OF PANAMA...SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND RECENT ASCAT DATA SHOWED 
20 TO 25 KT N WINDS FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN FILTERING INTO THE 
GULF OF PANAMA. THE PASS ALSO INDICATES AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE 
HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 06N79W WEST OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. WINDS 
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY...ALLOWING THE 
NORTH WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA TO DIMINISH 
TUESDAY.

$$
HUFFMAN