000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271547
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON DEC 27 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 06N77W TO 06N85W TO 06N93W TO LOW PRES 1012 MB AT 
06N109W TO LOW PRES 1012 MB AT 06N115W TO 07N140W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...THE UPPER PATTERN IS BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED AS A 
DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN BAJA TO 07N121W SHIFTS 
EAST AND DEEPENS OVER NW MEXICO...AHEAD OF A RIDGE BUILDING OVER 
139W. ASSOCIATED 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 30N130W 
WILL VARY LITTLE IN POSITION OR STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
ASCAT AND SHIP DATA SHOW 20 KT FLOW BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH AND 
THE BAJA COAST. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH NW OF HAWAII WILL MOVE TO 
THE NORTH OF THE RIDGE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...AND DIG INTO 
THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY EARLY WED. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT W 
AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE 
TROUGH WILL PUSH S OF 30N BY 30/00Z...FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO 
STRONG NW WINDS E OF 130W. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL PERSIST 
THROUGH TUE S OF THE SURFACE HIGH W OF 120W...THEN DIMINISH WED 
INTO THU AS THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH WEAKENS. MEANWHILE 
LONG PERIOD NW SWELL MAINLY N OF 14N WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH WED. 
MIXED NW AND NE SWELL OF 8 TO 13 FT WILL PERSIST WHERE FRESH TO 
STRONG TRADES PREVAIL THROUGH TUE THEN DIMINISH TO 8 TO 9 FT WED.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...LATEST REPORTS FROM IXTEPEC AND SALINA 
CRUZ NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE 
SHOWING MAX WINDS TO NEAR 30 KT...INDICATING WINDS TO MINIMAL 
GALE FORCE OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
ARE STILL POSSIBLE. THIS WILL DIMINISH TO BELOW GALE FORCE LATER 
THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WEAKENS AND SHIFTS E. 
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO BELOW 20 KT BY TUE AFTERNOON. NE SWELL 
GENERATED BY THE GAP WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO WED AS FAR AS 700 
NM TO THE SE OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.

GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA...A 03Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED 20 TO 25 
KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF FONSECA AND UP TO 30 KT THROUGH 
PAPAGAYO. THIS FLOW WAS DUE TO STRONG GRADIENT N FLOW AIDED BY 
LOCAL DRAINAGE EFFECTS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE FONSECA 
WINDS DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON...THEN REOCCURRING MON NIGHT 
INTO TUE MORNING. SINCE PAPAGAYO WINDS ARE LESS DEPENDENT ON 
DRAINAGE EFFECTS...EXPECT AT LEAST 20 KT FLOW INCREASING TO AS 
HIGH AS 30 KT OVERNIGHT WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT POSSIBLE IN A 
PLUME OF NE SWELL OUT AS FAR AS 600 NM. 

GULF OF PANAMA...A SHIP OBSERVATION SHOWED 20 TO 25 KT N WINDS 
FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA. GLOBAL MODELS ARE 
SHOWING LOW PRES DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF PANAMA 
OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL BECOME 
MORE EASTERLY...ALLOWING THE NORTH WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE 
GULF OF PANAMA TO DIMINISH TUE. 

$$
CHRISTENSEN