000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271003
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON DEC 27 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 06N77W TO 06N85W TO 04N95W TO LOW PRES 1012 MB AT 
06N109W TO 08N127W TO 08N140W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS E OF 982W.

...DISCUSSION...
NARROW LARGE AMPLITUDE DEEP LAYER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM TEXAS 
ACROSS MEXICO TO 08N122W WITH SWATH OF DRY AIR MASS WITHIN 240 
NM W OF AXIS.  UPSTREAM ANTICYCLONE BRINGS LARGE AREA OF UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO E PAC N OF 20N.  ITCZ DIMINISHING CONVECTIVE 
DEBRIS ADVECTED NE TO CENTRAL MEXICO BY 85 KT JET CORE 
DOWNSTREAM OF TROUGH AXIS. 

AT THE SURFACE...HEALTHY 1027 MB HIGH PRES AT 30N130W PROMPT 
FRESH NE TRADES FROM 06N TO 20N W OF 120W AND MODERATE TO FRESH 
NW BREEZE ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST...ALTHOUGH THE LATTER IS 
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD.  

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...HIGH PRES OVER GULF OF MEXICO SHIFT E 
TODAY VEERING WIND FLOW SE AND EFFECTIVELY SHUTTING BLAST OF 
COLD DENSE AIR ACROSS ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC WHICH IS PRIME 
SOURCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS DOWNSTREAM.  WINDS DIMINISH BELOW 
GALE FORCE LATER TODAY AND BELOW 20 KT LATE TUE.  LARGE AREA OF 
SWELL CREATED BY EVENT REMAIN THROUGH END OF FORECAST PERIOD AND 
SPREAD W WHILE DECAYING.   

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E FLOW CAUSED BY COLD FRONT ACROSS 
WESTERN CARIBBEAN GENERATE FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE E OF 88W 
THROUGH TUE.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG N BREEZE ENTER GULF OF PANAMA 
EARLY MON AND LAST THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. 

$$
WALLY BARNES