000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270328
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON DEC 27 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 07N78W TO 04N86W TO LOW PRES NEAR 06N108W TO 08N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 08N E OF 81W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 133W 
AND 139W.

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...LARGE AMPLITUDE NEGATIVELY TILTED DEEP LAYER TROUGH 
AXIS EXTENDS FROM GULF OF ALASKA TO NEW MEXICO...THEN TURNS SW 
TO 13N123W. WHILE THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAS DISSIPATED...A 
STRONG 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH HAS RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE FORECAST 
WATERS N OF 12N. THE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 32N125W AND REMAINS 
NEARLY STATIONARY. FURTHER SOUTH...TWO WEAK TROUGHS PERSIST 
ALONG THE ITCZ...ONE NEAR 108W AND THE OTHER NEAR 114W. THESE 
ARE MOST LIKELY REFLECTIVE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TO 
THEIR WEST WHICH CONTINUES TO ENHANCE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS 
AND TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. WITH THE 
HIGH BUILDING IN TO THE NORTH...AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS FROM 
26/1812Z SHOWED 20 KT TRADE WINDS FROM 07N TO 19N W OF 121W. 
THIS AREA OF TRADES IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER 
OF THE PERIOD. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS 
PROGRESSING OVER THE FAR NE WATERS ALONG 121W AND IS FORECAST TO 
ENHANCE NW TO N WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE BAJA COAST N OF 27N.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...DENSE AIR OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO IS 
PUSHING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH A RECENT 26/1630 
UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWING N TO NE WINDS IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE. 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY LATE MONDAY 
AS THE HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST. THE GALE 
FORCE GAP WINDS WILL CREATE A LARGE PLUME OF NE SWELL THROUGH 
EARLY TOMORROW...REACHING AS FAR AS 660 NM TO THE SE OF THE 
GULF.   

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A SURGE OF STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW WILL TOGETHER 
INITIATE PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG GAP WIND FLOW OVER THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS...PRIMARILY IN THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. 
THE NE TO E FLOW WILL IN TURN GENERATE FRESH SWELL WITH HEIGHTS 
OF 8 TO 11 FT OUT TO 600 NM WSW OF THE GULF BY TUESDAY.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH INTO 
THE GULF OF PANAMA BY MONDAY MORNING FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN... 
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT. 

$$
HUFFMAN