000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262145
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN DEC 26 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 07N78W TO 04N87W TO LOW PRES NEAR 07N107W TO 08N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 06N E OF 82W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 133W AND 139W.

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...LARGE AMPLITUDE NEGATIVELY TILTED DEEP LAYER TROUGH 
AXIS EXTENDS FROM GULF OF ALASKA TO NEW MEXICO...THEN TURNS SW 
TO 13N123W. WHILE THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAS DISSIPATED OVER 
THE PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS ACROSS NW MEXICO...A STRONG 1027 MB 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT IN BEHIND IT AND IMPACTS MUCH OF 
THE FORECAST AREA N OF 12N. THE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 30N128W. 
FURTHER SOUTH...TWO WEAK TROUGHS PERSIST ALONG THE ITCZ...ONE 
NEAR 107W AND THE OTHER NEAR 113W. THESE ARE MOST LIKELY 
REFLECTIVE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TO THEIR WEST WHICH 
CONTINUES TO ENHANCE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 
90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN 
TO THE NORTH...AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS FROM 26/1812Z SHOWED 20 KT 
TRADE WINDS FROM 07N TO 18N W OF 121W. THIS AREA OF TRADES IS 
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. NW TO N 
WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER 
THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS GENERALLY STATIONARY 
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...DENSE AIR OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO IS 
PUSHING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH A RECENT 26/1630 
UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWING N TO NE WINDS IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE. 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY LATE MONDAY 
AS THE HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST. THE GALE 
FORCE GAP WINDS WILL CREATE A LARGE PLUME OF NE SWELL THROUGH 
EARLY TOMORROW...REACHING AS FAR AS 660 NM TO THE SE OF THE 
GULF.   

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A SURGE OF STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW WILL TOGETHER 
INITIATE PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG GAP WIND FLOW OVER THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS...PRIMARILY IN THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. 
THE NE TO E FLOW WILL IN TURN GENERATE FRESH SWELL WITH HEIGHTS 
OF 8 TO 11 FT OUT TO 600 NM WSW OF THE GULF BY TUESDAY.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH INTO 
THE GULF OF PANAMA BY MONDAY MORNING FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN... 
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT. 

$$
HUFFMAN