000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261522
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN DEC 26 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 06N77W TO 05N90W TO 08N111W TO 08N140W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...LARGE AMPLITUDE NEGATIVELY TILTED DEEP LAYER TROUGH 
AXIS EXTENDS FROM GULF OF ALASKA TO ARIZONA...THEN TURNS SW TO 
13N126W. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM ARIZONA THROUGH 
THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE FRONT CONTINUES SW TOWARD 
25N118W AS A DISSIPATING FRONT. 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS 
BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR 30N131W. FURTHER SOUTH...TWO WEAK 
TROUGHS PERSIST ALONG THE ITCZ...ONE NEAR 129W AND THE OTHER 
NEAR 112W. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0540Z SHOWED TRADES WINDS TO STILL 
BELOW 20 KT S OF THE HIGH PRES...BUT THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
INCREASE TODAY AS THE HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH. NW TO N 
WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST WILL ALSO INCREASE LATER TODAY AS THE 
HIGH PRES BUILDS AS WELL. SHIP OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW NW 
SWELL WITH HEIGHTS UP TO 15 FT PROPAGATING S OF 30N ALONG THE 
FRONT.  

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...DENSE AIR OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO IS 
PUSHING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS MORNING. A 04Z 
ASCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS TO 30 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 
LATEST REPORTS FROM IXTEPEC AND SALINA CRUZ ON THE SOUTHERN END 
OF THE ISTHMUS SHOW NORTHERLY GAP WINDS TO 30 KT...A GOOD 
INDICATION THAT WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE ALREADY 
AT GALE FORCE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY LATE 
TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST. 
THE GALE FORCE GAP WINDS WILL CREATE A LARGE PLUME OF NE SWELL 
THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW...REACHING AS FAR AS 600 NM TO THE SE OF 
THE GULF.   

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A SURGE OF STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW WILL TOGETHER 
INITIATE PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...PRIMARILY IN THE 
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. THE NE TO E FLOW WILL IN TURN 
GENERATE FRESH SWELL WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 11 FT OUT TO 600 NM 
WSW OF THE GULF BY EARLY TUE.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG N FLOW  WILL PUSH INTO THE GULF 
OF PANAMA BY MON MORNING FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN...WITH SEAS 
BUILDING TO AT LEAST 8 FT. 

$$
CHRISTENSEN