000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252154
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT DEC 25 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 05N77W TO 08N109W TO 09N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION NOTED. A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE 
ITCZ ANALYZED FROM 11N120W TO 06N122W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 118W AND 124W.

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...LARGE AMPLITUDE NEGATIVELY TILTED DEEP LAYER TROUGH 
AXIS EXTENDS FROM GULF OF ALASKA TO 30N124W TO 24N128W. THE 
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N124W TO 30N124W TO 26N127W 
TO 20N139W. ASCAT DATA SHOW FRESH TO STRONG S TO SW WINDS N OF 
26N WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE FRONT AND 20 KT NW WINDS WITHIN 
ROUGHLY 240 TO 300 NM W OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST 
THEN DISSIPATE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER 
TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD 
IN BEHIND THE FRONT...SETTLING NEAR 31N128W BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. 
FURTHER SOUTH...A RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATED FRESH TRADES FROM 
08N TO 13N W OF 128W N OF THE ITCZ. THIS MODEST TRADE WIND FLOW 
IS ANTICIPATED TO EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH MONDAY AS THE 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. MEANWHILE...RESIDUAL NW SWELL 
WILL CONTINUE FILTERING SE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THIS AREA W OF 
110W.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...LAND BASED OBSERVATIONS AND GLOBAL MODEL 
GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT NORTHERLY FLOW HAS REACHED THE CHIVELA 
PASS AND DENSER AIR HAS BEGUN FILTERING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. THE COLD FRONT REACHES TO NEAR COATZACOALCOS MEXICO 
AND IS EXPECTED TO INTRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS BY 26/0600 
UTC...PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THIS EVENT WILL CREATE A 
LARGE PLUME OF NE SWELL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...REACHING AS 
FAR AS 07N.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GRADIENT AND DRAINAGE FLOW EFFECTS WILL 
TOGETHER INITIATE A PULSE OF 20 KT FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL THEN POSSIBLY DIMINISH 
SLIGHTLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...THEN REGENERATE SUNDAY 
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS STRONGER FLOW TO 25 KT AND SLIGHTLY 
DENSER AIR PUSHES INTO THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN...AND THROUGH THE 
PAPAGAYO AREA. 

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH N FLOW WILL PUSH INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA 
BY MONDAY MORNING FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN.

$$
HUFFMAN