000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251547
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT DEC 25 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 05N78W TO 08N109W TO 09N122W TO 09N140W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...LARGE AMPLITUDE NEGATIVELY TILTED DEEP LAYER TROUGH 
AXIS EXTENDS FROM GULF OF ALASKA TO 30N131W TO 24N134W. 
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 33N127W TO 30N129W TO 
23N140W. ASCAT DATA SHOW FRESH TO STRONG S TO SW WINDS N OF 25N 
E OF FRONT TO 125W AND 20 KT NW W OF FRONT. A SHIP OBSERVATION 
INDICATED LONG PERIOD NW SWELL UP TO 11 FT BEHIND THE 
FRONT...BACKED UP BY A JASON ALTIMETER PASS FROM 03Z SHOWING 
SEAS TO 13 FT NEAR 30N140W. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST THEN 
DISSIPATE THROUGH 48 HOURS AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH LIFTS 
OUT. HIGH PRES BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT...SETTLING NEAR 30N131W 
BY MON AFTERNOON. FURTHER SOUTH...A RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATED 
FRESH TRADES N OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 121W NEAR THE 
ITCZ. ELSEWHERE MODEST TRADE WIND FLOW N OF THE ITCZ WILL 
INCREASE INTO MON AS THE HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH. 
MEANWHILE...RESIDUAL NW SWELL UP TO 9 FT S OF 25N WILL DIMINISH 
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...JUST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED NW SWELL 
SWEEPS TO THE SE.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...LAND BASED OBSERVATIONS HINT OF LIGHT 
WINDS CURRENTLY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY STARTING 
THIS AFTERNOON AS DENSER AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH 
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO PUSHES INTO THE TEHUANTEPEC ISTHMUS. 
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL START TONIGHT...AND PERSIST THROUGH SUN 
NIGHT. THE GALE FORCE GAP WINDS WILL CREATE A LARGE PLUME OF NE 
SWELL THROUGH EARLY MON...REACHING AS FAR AS 600 NM TO THE SE OF 
THE GULF.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GRADIENT AND DRAINAGE FLOW EFFECTS WILL 
TOGETHER INITIATE A PULSE OF 20 KT FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO SUN MORNING. THIS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BY SUN 
AFTERNOON...THEN REGENERATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING AS 
STRONGER FLOW AND SLIGHTLY DENSER AIR PUSHES INTO THE FAR SW 
CARIBBEAN...AND THROUGH THE PAPAGAYO AREA. 

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH N FLOW  WILL PUSH INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA 
BY MON MORNING FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN.

$$
CHRISTENSEN