000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251000
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT DEC 25 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 03N78W TO 08N106W TO 08N125W TO 09N140W.  ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM S OF AXIS W OF 138W.

...DISCUSSION...
LARGE AMPLITUDE NEGATIVELY TILTED DEEP LAYER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS 
FROM GULF OF ALASKA TO 32N135W TO 17N133W.  ASSOCIATED COLD 
FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N128W TO 24N140W.  FRESH TO STRONG S-SW 
WINDS N OF 25N E OF FRONT TO 125W AND STRONG NW W OF FRONT.   
LARGE NW SWELL LONG PERIOD ACCOMPANYING FRONT WITH SEAS 8-12 FT. 
FRONT FORECAST TO SHIFT NE AND DISSIPATE LATE SUN AS DEEP LAYER 
TROUGH LIFTS N OF AREA.  WINDS BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND FRONT 
DIMINISH BUT NW SWELL CONTINUE TO CROSS BASIN THROUGH PERIOD. 

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
BLOCKING COLD FRONT PATH IS SURFACE HIGH PRES 1019 MB AT 27N121W 
FORCED S BY APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT 
INCREASES NE TRADES LATE IN FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH REBUILDS AND 
FRONT PULLS AWAY FROM BASIN.    

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WINDS RAPIDLY INCREASE SAT THROUGH CHIVELA 
PASS AS GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT SWEEPS SE BRINGING DENSE COLD 
AIR THROUGH ISTHMUS.  WINDS EXPECTED TO REACH GALE FORCE EARLY 
SUN.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH NE TRADES ACROSS WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA 
FILTER ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA LANDMASS AND WESTWARD DRAINAGE 
THROUGH GULF OF PAPAGAYO INCREASING TO STRONG LATE IN FORECAST 
PERIOD. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...PRESENT FRESH NW WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH 
AS HIGH PRES W OF CALIFORNIA IS FORCED S BY INCOMING COLD FRONT. 

$$
WALLY BARNES