000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250330
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT DEC 25 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 04N77W TO 07N108W TO 07N120W TO 09N140W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA REGION 
ALONG 136W TO 20N ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
THAT CONTINUES MOVING EASTWARD THIS EVENING. AN ASSOCIATED COLD 
FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N131W TO 30N132W TO 25N140W. AN EARLIER 
ASCAT PASS FROM 24/1850 UTC DEPICTED FRESH TO STRONG S-SW WINDS 
N OF 26N E OF THE FRONT TO 126W. SHIP OBSERVATIONS ALSO CONFIRM 
NW SWELL ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 8 TO 
12 FT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO SHIFT E AND BEGIN DISSIPATING 
THROUGH 48 HOURS AS THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH LIFTS NORTH OF THE 
AREA AND IMPACTS THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND PACIFIC NW COAST BY 
EARLY SUNDAY. WINDS BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL 
DIMINISH ACCORDINGLY ALTHOUGH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE 
TO PUSH INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE 
PERIOD. EAST OF THIS FRONTAL TROUGH...A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH 
PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 27N121W AND WILL DRIFT SE AND WEAKEN 
GRADUALLY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.

FURTHER SOUTH IN THE DEEP TROPICS...TOGA-TAO BUOY DATA AND A 
RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATES PERSISTENT FRESH SE WINDS S OF THE 
ITCZ W OF 135W. ELSEWHERE W OF 115W...RESIDUAL NW SWELL IS NOTED 
IN A BROAD AREA GENERALLY COVERING THE AREA FROM 07N TO 21N.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...REPORTS FROM IXTEPEC ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE 
OF THE TEHUANTEPEC ISTHMUS SHOW WINDS HAVE GRADUALLY DECREASED 
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS BELOW 20 KT IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS ESTABLISHED ITSELF OVER 
THE SW GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH. BY LATE SATURDAY...WINDS 
WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AS A COLD FRONT 
SWEEPS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO BRINGING DENSER AIR THROUGH THE 
ISTHMUS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH GALE FORCE BY EARLY SUNDAY.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN 
CARIBBEAN SEA PROMOTES A MORE NORTHERLY WIND REGIME AND 
THEREFORE AN OVERALL LACK OF STRONGER WINDS FILTERING ACROSS THE 
CENTRAL AMERICA LANDMASS AND WESTWARD DRAINAGE THROUGH THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO. LOOKING AHEAD HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A 
STRONGER PULSE OF WINDS TO IMPACT THE AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 20 KT 
OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS DUE TO SURFACE TROUGHING ANALYZED FROM 
SOUTHERN ARIZONA TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE MEXICAN STATE OF 
SONORA...DECREASING BELOW 20 KT BY LATE SATURDAY.

$$
HUFFMAN