000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242155
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI DEC 24 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 05N77W TO 04N95W TO 08N118W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 131W AND 136W.

...DISCUSSION...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA REGION 
ALONG 140W TO 20N ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
THAT CONTINUES MOVING EASTWARD THIS EVENING. AN ASSOCIATED COLD 
FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N133W TO 30N135W TO 27N140W. RECENT SHIP 
OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH AN EARLIER WINDSAT SCATTEROMETER PASS 
FROM 24/1516 UTC DEPICTED FRESH TO STRONG S-SW WINDS N OF 26N E 
OF THE FRONT TO 128W. SHIP OBSERVATIONS ALSO CONFIRM NW SWELL 
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 8 TO 11 FT. THE 
FRONT IS FORECAST TO SHIFT E AND BEGIN DISSIPATING THROUGH 48 
HOURS AS THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA AND 
IMPACTS THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND PACIFIC NW BY EARLY SUNDAY. 
WINDS BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH 
ACCORDINGLY ALTHOUGH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH 
INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. EAST OF THIS FRONTAL 
TROUGH...A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 
29N120W AND WILL SHIFT SE AND WEAKEN GRADUALLY AHEAD OF THE 
APPROACHING FRONT.

FURTHER SOUTH IN THE DEEP TROPICS...TOGA-TAO BUOYS INDICATE 
PERSISTENT FRESH SE WINDS S OF THE ITCZ W OF 130W. ELSEWHERE W 
OF 110W...RESIDUAL NW SWELL IS NOTED IN A BROAD AREA GENERALLY 
COVERING THE AREA FROM 07N TO 22N W OF 115W.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND REPORTS FROM IXTEPEC 
ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE TEHUANTEPEC ISTHMUS SHOW WINDS TO 20 
KT NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A DIMINISHING TREND THROUGH THE EVENING 
HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA SHIFTS EAST AND SW FLOW 
DOMINATES THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY 
INCREASE BY LATE SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GULF 
OF MEXICO BRINGING DENSER AIR THROUGH THE ISTHMUS. WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO REACH GALE FORCE BY EARLY SUN.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GAP FLOW WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING 
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME BRIEF 20 KT WINDS EARLY SATURDAY 
MORNING DUE TO DRAINAGE FLOW...BUT OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER 
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA PROMOTES A MORE NORTHERLY WIND REGIME 
AND THEREFORE AN OVERALL LACK OF STRONGER WINDS THROUGH THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO. LOOKING AHEAD...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A STRONGER PULSE 
OF WINDS TO IMPACT THE AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 20 
TO 25 KT RANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO SURFACE TROUGHING 
ANALYZED FROM SW ARIZONA TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE MEXICAN 
STATE OF SONORA...DECREASING BELOW 20 KT BY LATE SATURDAY.

$$
HUFFMAN