000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241549
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI DEC 24 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 02N79W TO LOW PRES NEAR 07N105W TO 10N135W TO 
09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 
131W TO 134W.

...DISCUSSION...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE FAR NW PACIFIC TO 20N IS 
MOVING EAST THROUGH 140W. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 
35N132W TO 30N136W TO 28N140W. RECENT SHIP OBSERVATIONS ALONG 
WITH WINDSAT DATA FROM AROUND 03Z SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG SW 
WINDS WITHIN 240 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. SHIP 
OBSERVATIONS ALSO CONFIRM NW SWELL ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT WITH 
SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT E AND START TO 
DISSIPATE THROUGH 48 HOURS AS THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH LIFTS OUT. 
WINDS BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH 
ACCORDINGLY ALTHOUGH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH 
INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.

1021 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 30N120W AND WILL 
SHIFT E AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATED FRESH NW 
TO N WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH 
PRES. THIS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE HIGH PRES 
SHIFTS E. 

FURTHER SOUTH IN THE DEEP TROPICS...TOGA-TAO BUOYS INDICATE 
PERSISTENT FRESH SE WINDS S OF THE ITCZ W OF 130W. ELSEWHERE W 
OF 110W...RESIDUAL NW SWELL IS NOTED IN A BROAD SWATH COVERING 
THE AREA S OF A LINE FROM THE BAJA COAST SW TO NEAR 20N140W.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND REPORTS FROM IXTEPEC 
ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE TEHUANTEPEC ISTHMUS SHOW FRESH TO 
STRONG WINDS STILL EVIDENT NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THESE 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRES N OF 
THE AREA SHIFTS EAST AND SW FLOW DOMINATES THE WESTERN GULF OF 
MEXICO. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE BY LATE SAT NIGHT AS A COLD 
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO BRINGING DENSER AIR 
THROUGH THE ISTHMUS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH GALE FORCE BY 
EARLY SUN.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...RECENT SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE STRONG 
MORNING GAP FLOW CONTINUES. THIS WILL DIMINISH LATER TODAY. 
THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF 20 KT WINDS EARLY SAT MORNING DUE TO 
DRAINAGE FLOW...BUT WILL END BY MIDDAY. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A 
STRONGER PULSE OF WINDS WILL SET UP BY EARLY SUN.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...FRESH WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE 
GULF WILL DIMINISH BY 36 HOURS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE 
AREA.
     
$$
CHRISTENSEN