000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240323
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI DEC 24 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 02N78W TO 
05N90W TO 07N101W TO 06N120W TO 09N140W. TROUGH WITHIN THE ITCZ 
FROM 10N100W TO 06N102W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 
NM W OF TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...
 
A 1022 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 30N123W EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER 
THE FORECAST WATERS COVERING ROUGHLY THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 
110W. S TO SW WINDS OF 20 KT ARE NOTED OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH 30N140W 
AT AROUND 24/0600 UTC. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE ACROSS 
THE N WATERS EXTENDING FROM 30N132W TO 25N140W FRI EVENING... 
AND FROM 30N122W TO 19N131W SAT EVENING. S TO SW WINDS OF 20 
TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT PARTICULARLY N OF 25N. 
NW WINDS OF 20 KT AND LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE 
HEIGHTS AS HIGH OF 16 FT CAN BE FOUND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N134W TO 09N136W. THIS TROUGH IS 
EXPECTED TO DRIFT W AND GRADUALLY LOSE IDENTITY OVER THE NEXT 
24-36 HOURS. THE WEAK LOW PRES THAT WAS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ 
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS DISSIPATED AND NOW A SURFACE 
TROUGH IS NOTED ON THE 0000 UTC SURFACE MAP. SEE ITCZ SECTION.  
  
CROSS EQUATORIAL SE WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT ARE NOTED OVER THE 
TROPICAL WATERS S OF 07N W OF 125W. THE AFFECTED AREA IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN 24 HOURS WITH WINDS BELOW 20 KT IN 48 
HOURS. 
   
GAP WINDS...
WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KT ARE BLOWING THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
AND ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT FRI EVENING...THEN WILL 
INCREASE AGAIN TO 20 TO 25 KT SAT EVENING. THE MARINE GUIDANCE 
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. A MINIMAL GALE FORCE 
WIND EVENT COULD TAKE PLACE. FOR THIS PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS OF 
30 TO 35 KT AND BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 13 FT.

AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOWED NE WINDS OF 20 KT THROUGH THE GULFS 
OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE THROUGH 
THESE GULFS FRI MORNING...THEN DIMINISH. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED 
BELOW 20 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA.  
     
$$
GR