000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231533
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU DEC 23 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1530 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM  04N77W TO 
EMBEDDED LOW PRES AT 06N101W TO 07N130W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 03N TO 05 N BETWEEN 77W AND 80W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 96W AND 
108W. 

THE EMBEDDED 1011 MB LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DRIFTING 
W AND GRADUALLY LOSING IDENTITY IN THE ITCZ. A TROUGH IS 
ORIENTATED N TO S FROM 18N120W TO 10N134W. THIS TROUGH IS 
EXPECTED TO DRIFT W AND GRADUALLY LOSE IDENTITY OVER THE NEXT 48 
HOURS. 

...DISCUSSION...
 
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS E OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM 
31N111W TO 23N116W WITH NO CONVECTION. THIS FRONT WILL BE 
COMPLETELY DISSIPATED IN 24 HOURS. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL ENTER 
THE AREA IN 24 HOURS FROM 31N111W TO 23N116W WITH SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL 
EXTEND FROM 31N111W TO 23N116W IN 48 HOURS WITH SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF FRONT.   

IN THE TROPICS...EXPECT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER 
PANAMA AND THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM EQUATOR TO 10N E OF 110W 
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.    

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE E PACIFIC N 
OF 10N BETWEEN 100W AND 130W SUPPORTING THE DISSIPATING COLD 
FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF 100W. EXPECT... ANOTHER 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO BE N OF 20N W OF 130W IN 24 HOURS 
SUPPORTING THE NEW COLD FRONT.   

CROSS EQUATORIAL SE WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT ARE NOTED OVER THE 
TROPICAL WATERS S OF 07N W OF 125W WITH THE AFFECTED AREA 
EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN 48 HOURS.
   
GAP WINDS...NNE 20 TO 25 KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
WILL DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 20 KT ON FRI. NE WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PULSE AT 15 TO 20 KT IN AND JUST 
DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO UNTIL FRI AFTERNOON. N WINDS 
AT 15 TO 20 KT IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PANAMA SHOULD 
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON.
     
$$
FORMOSA