000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230329
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU DEC 23 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 03N77W TO LOW 
PRES 07N99W TO 07N110W TO 09N125W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LOW CENTER.  

...DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG W TO NW WINDS 
AND COMBINED SEA HEIGHTS OF UP TO 15 FT. THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM 
31N115W TO 24N120W TO 24N127W. A FRONTAL TROUGH LIES JUST AHEAD 
OF THE COLD FRONT AND STRETCHES FROM THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 23N118W. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED 
TO OVERTAKE THE FRONTAL TROUGH TONIGHT AND THE MERGED FRONT WILL 
BE OUT OF AREA THU MORNING. HIGH PRES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT 
WILL DOMINATE THE N WATERS MAINLY N OF 15N W OF 110W THROUGH 
FRI. ON THIS DAY...A NEW COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE FAR 
NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST REGION. WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE 
EXPECTED EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS UP TO 
14 FT IN NW SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 
20 TO 25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...PARTICULARLY N OF 
24N BY FRI AS HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE GREAT BASIN. 

CROSS EQUATORIAL SE WINDS AT 20 KT ARE NOTED OVER THE TROPICAL 
WATERS MAINLY S OF 05N W OF 120W. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS 
FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 
   
GAP WINDS...
SOME LATE NIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN 20 TO 25 
KT N WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH 
FRI. IXTEPEC IN OAXACA MEXICO REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 
25 KT FROM 22/1100 UTC TO 23/0000 UTC VERIFYING THE EXISTENCE OF 
THIS GAP WIND EVENT. 

LOOKING AHEAD...COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT A MINIMAL GALE 
FORCE WIND EVENT WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. FOR THIS PERIOD...EXPECT NLY WINDS 
OF 30 TO 35 KT AND SEAS TO AROUND 14 FT. 

GAP WIND OF 20 KT WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE THROUGH THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE WINDS ARE GREATEST 
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS WITH THE AID OF DRAINAGE 
FLOW. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT LATE FRI.

NLY WINDS AT 20 KT WILL CONTINUE TO DRAIN INTO THE GULF OF 
PANAMA THROUGH LATE THU. 
     
$$
GR