000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221538
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED DEC 22 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1530 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N77W TO 
1011 MB LOW AT 07N96W TO 05N110W TO 09N130W TO 08N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR LOW FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 
95W AND 97W. AN EMBEDDED TROUGH IS ORIENTATED N TO S FROM 
16N120W TO 06N130W. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT W AND 
GRADUALLY LOSE IDENTITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM N OF TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 45 NM OF REMAINDER OF ITCZ. 

...DISCUSSION...

A FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM 30N116W TO 
21N123W AND WEAKENING. A COLD FRONT IS FURTHER W FROM 30N121W TO 
25N140W MOVING SE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM NW OF 
FRONT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO EXTEND IN 24 HOURS PAST BAJA 
CALIFORNIA FROM 30N113W TO 20N110W TO 17N130W WITH SHOWERS. A 
NEW COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE AREA IN 48 HOURS FROM 30N137W TO 
28N140W.   

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE E PACIFIC N 
OF 20N W OF 110W WITH AXIS ALONG 125W. UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW IS 
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.  
 
CROSS EQUATORIAL SE WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT ARE NOTED OVER THE 
TROPICAL WATERS S OF 05N W OF 115W AND ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD A 
LITTLE FURTHER N TO ALONG 07N THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 
   
GAP WINDS...NORTHERLY 15 TO 20 KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC WILL SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASING TO 
20 TO 25 KT THU AND FRI MORNINGS. NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE TO PULSE AT 15 TO 20 KT IN AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THU MORNING...THEN DIMINISH. N WINDS AT 
15 TO 20 KT IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PANAMA SHOULD 
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON.
     
$$
FORMOSA