000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220327
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED DEC 22 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 02N78W TO LOW 
PRES 07N93W TO 05N110W TO 10N122W TO 08N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION. 

DISCUSSION...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM NEAR TIJUANA MEXICO TO 
21N130W THEN WSW TO 19N140W. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 1810 UTC SHOWED 
20 TO 25 KT W TO NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT PARTICULARLY N OF 
26N. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM. A PLUME 
OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ORIGINATING IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC 
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH STREAMING ACROSS THE 
DISCUSSION AREA INTO THE SW CONUS ALONG 19N140W TO 22N125W TO 
BEYOND 32N115W. A SECONDARY FRONT IS NOTED OVER THE NW WATERS 
AND EXTENDS FROM 30N129W TO 28N140W. THIS SECOND FRONT IS 
EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT NEAR NORTHERN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA LATE WED. SEAS BEHIND THE MERGED FRONT WILL BUILD TO 
ABOUT 16 FT IN LONG PERIOD NW SWELL BUT ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE 
TO ABOUT 10 FT BEFORE REACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA. WINDS ARE 
FORECAST TO INCREASE UP TO 25 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE N 
PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA EARLY WED MORNING. 

A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AND EXTENDS 
FROM 15N122W TO 09N125W. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS HELPING TO 
INDUCE SOME CONVECTION NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS. AN EARLIER ASCAT 
PASS SHOWED THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. A WEAK 
1010 MB LOW PRES IS ALSO WITHIN THE ITCZ NEAR 07N93W AND IS 
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS WHILE DRIFTING WWD. A 
SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS IS SEEN IN SATELLITE PICTURES IN ASSOCIATION 
WITH THIS FEATURE. 

CROSS EQUATORIAL SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD N ACROSS THE 
EQUATOR OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS S OF 05N W OF 120W IN 24 HOURS.  
   
GAP WINDS...
THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY NEW OBSERVATIONS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
SINCE THE ASCAT PASS FROM 21/1452 UTC THAT INDICATED NE WINDS OF 
20 TO 25 KT ACROSS THE GULF. BASED ON THE MARINE GUIDANCE...GAP 
WIND OF 20 KT WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE THROUGH THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE WINDS ARE GREATEST 
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS WITH THE AID OF DRAINAGE 
FLOW. 

SHIP ZCDF4 CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA IS 
REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 22 KT. NLY WINDS AT 20 KT WILL 
CONTINUE TO DRAIN INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH THU MORNING. 

SOME LATE NIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN 20 KT N 
WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH FRI. 
ACCORDING TO THE COMPUTER MODELS...A GALE FORCE WIND EVENT WILL 
TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. 
     
$$
GR