000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211540
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE DEC 21 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N77W TO 
04N82W TO LOW PRES NEAR 07N89W TO 10N121W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF 10N121W.

DISCUSSION...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM NEAR TIJUANA MEXICO TO 
22N130W THEN WSW TO 20N140W. A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IS ROTATING 
THROUGH THE DOMINANT LONG WAVE PATTERN ALONG 131W INTO THE NW 
PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH A COLD FRONT DEVELOPING FROM 
32N130W TO 29N135W. THE SECOND FRONT IS EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE THE 
DISSIPATING FRONT NEAR NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA WED EVENING. 
SEAS W OF THE FRONT WILL BUILD TO ABOUT 16 FT IN LONG PERIOD NW 
SWELL BUT ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO ABOUT 10 FT BEFORE REACHING 
BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF 
OF CALIFORNIA THU...WITH S WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT AHEAD 
THE FRONT OVER THE GULF WATERS N OF 29N.

THE AXIS OF A DENSE MOISTURE PLUME ORIGINATING IN THE CENTRAL 
PACIFIC STREAMING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA INTO THE SW CONUS 
IS FROM 19N140W TO 23N126W TO 32N119W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER THE 
DEEP TROPICS IN THE VICINITY OF 11N115W IS ENHANCING CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH IN THE ITCZ NEAR 10N121W...WITH DEBRIS 
MOISTURE SDRIFTING NW TOWARDS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. OTHERWISE
UPPER LEVELS ARE DRY S OF 15N W OF 123W AND S OF 25N E OF 125W.

CROSS EQUATORIAL SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD N ACROSS THE 
EQUATOR OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS S OF 07N W OF 130W IN 24 HOURS 
AND EXPECTED TO COVER THE AREA W OF 120W IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. 
   
GAP WINDS...
SOME LATE NIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW IS EXPECTED MAINTAIN 20 KT N WINDS 
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH FRI. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING SAT NIGHT. NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE TO PULSE AT 15 TO 20 KT IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH WED...THEN DIMINISH THU. WINDS IN THE GULF 
OF PANAMA WILL PEAK AT AROUND 20 KT WED MORNING THEN WEAKEN THU.
     
$$
MUNDELL