000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190311
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN DEC 19 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...TROPICAL LOWS...

A WELL DEFINED SURFACE LOW PRES CENTERED NEAR 09N113W WITH AN 
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1010 MB. AN EARLIER 1738 UTC ASCAT 
PASS CAPTURED NE WINDS OF 15 TO LOCALLY 20 KT IN THE NW QUADRANT 
OF THE LOW BUT FAILED TO CAPTURE THE STRONGER WINDS OVER THE 
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE 
WESTWARD AT 10 KT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS TO NEAR 10N116W IN 24 
HOURS AND NEAR 10N119W BY 48 HOURS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS 
AND SEAS.  

ANOTHER PERSISTENT SURFACE LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 07N86W WITH 
AN ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1008 MB. MUCH EARLIER 
SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED WINDS OF 20 KT WITHIN 180 NM IN THE 
SE SEMICIRCLE. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER IN THE SAME AREA 
THROUGH 48 HOURS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS AND SEAS.

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N77W TO LOW 
PRES NEAR 07N86W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N113W TO 06N127W TO 11N140W. 
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. 

...DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE 1020 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 24N125W WITH 
RIDGE EXTENDING WEST TO BEYOND 22N140W AND SE TO 18N110W. A 
SURFACE QUASI-STATIONARY/COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N132W TO 
28N140W WITH SW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT NOTED WITHIN 300 NM E OF 
THE FRONT AND SEAS TO 11 FT IN NW SWELL WEST OF THE FRONT. 
SEVERAL SECONDARY SURGES WILL PUSH THE NORTHERN SEGMENT OF THE 
FRONT E TO THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AROUND THE 
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY SEAS TO 14 FT IN NW SWELL.  

A LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 17N138W TO 08N142W WITH NE TO E  
TRADES UP TO 20 KT WITHIN 240 NM E OF TROUGH FROM 14N TO 18N. 
THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE W OF 140W WITHIN THE NEXT 18 TO 
24 HOURS. 
 
GAP WINDS...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM IXTEPEC NEAR THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC INDICATED NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE 
PAST SEVERAL HOURS SUGGESTING THAT A MINOR GAP WIND EVENT HAS 
COMMENCED IN THE AREA. THIS EVENT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS 
GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL QUICKLY BECOME 
ESTABLISHED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SUN NIGHT THUS DIMINISHING 
THE THE N WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY 
THAT TIME.  

$$
COBB