000 AXPZ20 KNHC 170322 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC FRI DEC 17 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...ITCZ... INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS FROM 08N78W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N90W...TO 05N92W TO 08N107W TO 05N115W TO 10N130W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 105W AND 108W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 110W... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1007 MB LOW N OF THE AREA NEAR 35N128W...TO 30N126W TO 27N130W TO 27N140W. STEERING FLOW ALOFT IS BECOMING MORE ZONAL AS AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE NE OF HAWAII SHIFTS EASTWARD. WITHOUT UPPER SUPPORT...THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ASCAT AND SHIP DATA SHOW FRESH NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT E OF 132W...AND FRESH SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHIPS ARE REPORTING SEAS TO 12 FT N OF THE AREA...WITH 8 TO 9 FT POSSIBLE N OF 27N W OF 125W. FURTHER SOUTH...A SURFACE TROUGH IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 08N TO 12N. ASCAT AND SHIP DATA SHOW THAT TRADE WINDS REMAIN MODEST BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND RELATIVELY WEAK 1017 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED 24N119W. THERE IS ENOUGH OF A PRES GRADIENT HOWEVER BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA COAST TO SUPPORT 20 KT N FLOW ALONG THE COAST AS TWO SHIPS EARLIER IN THE EVENING. FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC N OF HAWAII WILL SWEEP EASTWARD...TO THE NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE NW DISCUSSION AREA FOLLOWING BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY FRESH NW FLOW. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD TO EARLY NEXT WEEK...GLOBAL MODELS INCLUDING THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH DIGGING INTO AREA...ALONG WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLE LOW PRES AREA...BRINGING HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS N OF 20N E OF 140W. E OF 110W... A LOW PRES AREA ESTIMATED AROUND 1010 MB IS WELL DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR 07N90W ALONG THE ITCZ. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOWED ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SW FLOW ON THE SE OF THIS LOW. THE 18Z GFS RUN SHOWS STRONG SW FLOW BY LATE SAT AROUND THE QUASI-STATIONARY LOW...BUT THIS MAY BE INFLUENCED BY CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES FOR THAT TIME. THE 12Z ECMWF ALSO DEPICTS THE LOW AS QUASI-STATIONARY...BUT WITH SW FLOW TO 20 KT. FURTHER EAST...A SHIP REPORT FROM 00Z SHOWED FRESH N GAP WIND FLOW CONTINUES IN THE GULF OF PANAMA. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS DIMINISHING THROUGH FRI...WITH WINDS VEERING MORE SW BY SAT AS WEAK LOW PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF COLOMBIA. BY SAT NIGHT...A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CHIVELAS PASS AND INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG N FLOW TO FOLLOW IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...BUT GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS CURRENTLY DO NOT SHOW STRONG INDICATIONS OF GALES. $$ CHRISTENSEN