000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160920
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU DEC 16 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS FROM 08N83W TO 04N95W TO 
08N106W TO 08N120W TO TO 10N128W TO 09N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAK RIDGE PREVAILS OVER THE WATERS N OF 15N AND W OF 115W. A 
COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA AND CURRENTLY 
EXTENDS FROM 30N135W TO 27N140W. WINDS OF 20 KT AND SEAS OF 8 FT 
CAN BE FOUND AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST 
TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE N WATERS TODAY AND FRI BEFORE DISSIPATING 
LATE FRI. A STRONG LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW...APPROACHING THE 
NW CORNER OF THE AREA LATE THU INTO FRI. EXPECT SW WINDS OF 20 
KT AND SEAS OF 8 FT OVER NW WATERS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM FRI 
MORNING. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM 
WILL CLIP THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA ON FRI. ADDITIONAL PULSES 
OF NW SWELL SHOULD REACH THE NW PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IN 
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

THREE WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS ARE NOTED WITHIN THE ITCZ ON THE 0600 
UTC SURFACE MAP. FROM EAST TO WEST...THE FIRST EXTENDS FROM 
10N85W TO 3N89W. THE SECOND GOES FROM 10N104W TO 5N108W...AND 
THE THIRD RUNS FROM 14N125W TO 06N133W. ACCORDING TO THE 
COMPUTER MODELS...THESE FEATURES SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS. E TO SE WINDS OF 20 KT WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8 FT 
ARE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WESTERNMOST TROUGH. 

WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE 
RELATIVELY QUIET THE NEXT FEW DAYS...INCLUDING FAVORED LOCATIONS 
FOR GAP WINDS.

GAP WINDS...
WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHAUNTEPEC HAVE DIMINISHED TO 10 KT OR 
LESS PER A RECENT ASCAT PASS. WINDS IN THE GULF OF FONSECA ARE 
EXPECTED TO REACH 20 KT AGAIN THU MORNING THEN DIMINISH TO 10-15 
KT THU AFTERNOON. WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE ALSO 
EXPECTED TO REACH 20 KT THU MORNING DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON 
THEN PULSE TO 15-20 KT THU NIGHT AND FRI MORNING. 

AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0220 UTC PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF 20 KT N 
WINDS IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PANAMA. WINDS ARE 
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO BELOW 20 KT TONIGHT. 

$$
GR