000 AXPZ20 KNHC 152200 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC WED DEC 15 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...ITCZ... INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS FROM 09N84W TO 04N91W TO 08N103W TO 05N110W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N126W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM E OF LOW PRES. ...DISCUSSION... A WEAK RIDGE PREVAILS OVER THE WATERS N OF 15N AND W OF 115W. A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT ON THE S PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE OVER FAR W WATERS FROM 08N TO 16N. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AS A LOW PRES SYSTEM NEARS THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT N OF 27N THU THEN WEAKEN FRI. A STRONGER LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA THU NIGHT AND FRI. SW WINDS 20-25 KT AND SEAS 8-9 FT ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM FRI MORNING. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES IS ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 10N126W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED E OF THE LOW CENTER. 1436 UTC WINDSAT PASS SHOWED 20 KT NE WINDS N OF THE LOW AND 15- 20 KT SE WINDS S OF THE ITCZ5. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE WWD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH LITTLE CHANGE. WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY GAP WINDS. GAP WINDS... AN ASCAT PASS THIS MORNING UTC SHOWED 20-25 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA AND A WINDSAT PASS THIS AFTERNOON 20-25 KT WINDS DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS IN THE GULFS OF TEHAUNTEPEC AND FONSECA WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT TONIGHT...WHILE WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TO 20-25 KT CLOSE TO THE COAST THROUGH FRI MORNING.N WINDS OF 20-25 KT S OF THE GULF OF PANAMA TO 04N ARE EXPECTED BASED ON WW3 MODEL GUIDANCE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO AROUND 20 KT THU MORNING AND SHRINK NORTHWARD CLOSER TO THE COAST FRI MORNING. $$ MUNDELL