000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150924
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED DEC 15 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS FROM 09N84W TO 05N95W TO 
07N102W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N124W TO 08N140W. CLUSTER OF MODERATE 
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 125W 
AND 128W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NEAR 07N129W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
WITHIN 140 NM N OF AXIS W OF 134W.

...DISCUSSION...

WEAK RIDGE DOMINATES THE WATERS N OF 15N AND W OF 115W. A SMALL 
AREA OF FRESH TRADE WINDS PERSIST ON THE S PERIPHERY OF THE 
RIDGE FROM 09N TO 18N W OF 135W. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS 
A LOW PRES SYSTEM NEARS THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA. A SECOND AND 
STRONGER LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW...AND APPROACH THE NW 
CORNER OF THE AREA LATE THU INTO FRI. EXPECT SW TO W WINDS OF 20 
KT AND SEAS OF 8 FT OR LESS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES IS ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 09N124W. 
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO NEAR 13N121W. A CLUSTER 
OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SW OF LOW CENTER AS 
DESCRIBED ON THE ITCZ SECTION. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST A SLIGHT 
INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS LOW PRES AS 
IT CONTINUES TO MOVE WWD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

ELSEWHERE...WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN NORTH 
PACIFIC FORECAST WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO RELATIVELY TRANQUIL THE 
NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY 
GAP WINDS. SHORT PERIOD SWELLS OUT OF THE NE GENERATED FROM THE 
GAP AREAS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO WILL MERGE LATER TODAY  
AND SPREAD SW AFFECTING MAINLY THE WATERS FROM 04N TO 14N 
BETWEEN 88W AND 105W WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT. 

GAP WINDS...
A HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS FROM AROUND 0240 UTC PROVIDED 
OBSERVATIONS OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO 
AND FONSECA WHILE THE MOST RECENT WINDSAT PASS VERIFIED THE 
EXISTENCE OF N WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS IN THE GAPS WILL DIMINISH LATE TODAY INTO THU 
AND THE SHORT PERIOD SWELLS GENERATING ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL 
ALSO SUBSIDE BY THU. 

IN THE ABSENCE OF NEW OBSERVATIONS THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA 
DECIDE TO KEEP NLY WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE BASED ON THE 
MARINE GUIDANCE. A JASON PASS FROM 0240 UTC SHOWED WAVE HEIGHTS 
OF NEAR 8 FT. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH TONIGHT THEN 
DIMINISH TO AROUND 20 KT THU.

$$
GR