000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150340
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED DEC 15 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS FROM 06N78W TO LOW PRES 
NEAR 06N100W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N120W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS W OF 134W.

...DISCUSSION...

WEAK RIDGE N OF 15N AND W OF 115W. TWO WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRES 
ARE ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 06N100W AND 08N122W WITHOUT 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TRADE WINDS IS ON 
THE S PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE W OF 135W BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND 15N. 
THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AS A LOW PRES SYSTEM NEARS THE NW 
CORNER OF THE AREA THU. NW SWELL WILL SPREAD ACROSS NW CORNER OF 
DISCUSSION AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW...BUT SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO 
REMAIN 8 FT OR LESS. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM INCREASE 
TO 20 KT THU IN FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA.

WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC FORECAST 
WATERS WILL BE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH THE 
EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED LOCATIONS PRONE TO GAP WINDS. SHORT PERIOD 
NE SWELL GENERATED FROM GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO WILL 
MERGE WED AND SPREAD SW WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. GAP WINDS DIMINISH 
WED NIGHT AND THU AND SEAS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT.

GAP WINDS...
WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE BELOW GALE FORCE. WINDS  
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY WED AFTERNOON. 

FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND DOWNWIND OF THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO WED THEN DIMINISH WED NIGHT AND THU.

SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SHIP OBS INDICATE N WINDS TO 25 KT ARE 
FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED 
THROUGH WED NIGHT THEN DIMINISH TO AROUND 20 KT THU.

$$
MUNDELL