000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140925
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE DEC 14 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 06N77W TO 05N100W 
TO 08N118W TO 06N130W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
NEAR 07N129W.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAKENING 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED NEAR 27N137 EXTENDS A 
RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST WATERS N OF 15N AND W OF 110W. THIS 
RIDGE IS INTERRUPTED BY A WEAK TROUGH...A SURFACE REFLECTION OF 
CUT-OFF LOW SITUATED NEAR 18N130W. ONLY A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO 
STRONG NE TO E TRADEWINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT EXIST ON THE SOUTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE OVER WATERS BETWEEN 10N AND 15N W OF 
132W. NOAA SHIP NWS0009 VERIFIED THESE WIND SPEEDS. THE SURFACE 
HIGH WILL WEAKEN ON WED AS A NEW LOW PRES SYSTEM APPROACHES THE 
NW CORNER OF THE AREA. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS NEAR 
30N140W. 

WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGIONAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE 
TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 
THE LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY GAP WINDS. SHORT PERIOD SEAS OUT OF 
THE NE GENERATING ACROSS THE GAP AREAS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND 
PAPAGAYO WILL MERGE BY WED...AND SPREAD SW AFFECTING MAINLY THE 
WATERS FROM 04N TO 13N BETWEEN 88W AND 106W WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 9 
FT. A SMALL AREA OF TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST PARTICULARLY W OF 
135W. A NEW BATCH OF NW SWELL WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NW CORNER 
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. 

GAP WINDS...
A HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS FROM AROUND 0300 UTC SHOWED SEVERAL 
WIND BARBS OF 30 TO 35 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS 
WINDS CONTINUES TO FUNNEL FROM THE SW GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE 
CHIVELA PASS INTO THIS GULF. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT 
FOR THIS AREA UNTIL 14/1800 UTC. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT 
BY LATE WED. 

THE SAME ASCAT PASS ALSO INDICATED NE WINDS OF 20 KT FUNNELING 
INTO THE GULF OF FONSECA AS THE WIND SURGE FROM A COLD FRONT IN 
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN MOVES FURTHER SOUTH. FRESH TO STRONG NE 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE GULFS OF FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO 
THROUGH WED. THE GULF OF PANAMA WILL EXPERIENCE INCREASING WINDS 
TO 25 KT AT 15/0000 UTC WITH BUILDING SEAS TO 9 FT.

$$
GR