000
AXPZ20 KNHC 132206
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON DEC 13 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDS FROM 05N78W TO 06N106W TO 
07N115W TO 06N125W TO 08N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAKENING 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED NEAR 30N132W EXTENDS A 
RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST WATERS N OF 15N AND W OF 110W. A WEAK 
INVERTED TROUGH IS EVIDENT ALONG 128W. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS 
VERY LITTLE IF ANY WINDS MORE THAN 20 KT AND SEAS HIGHER THAN 8 
FT EXCEPT FOR FAVORED GAP WIND LOCATIONS NOTED BELOW. THE HIGH 
WILL SHIFT W TOWARD THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA TUE AND 
WED. A LOW PRES SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA WED.

GAP WINDS...
HIGH PRES OVER EASTERN MEXICO IS FUNNELING STRONG WINDS THROUGH 
THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE ONLY SURFACE 
OBSERVATIONS AVAILABLE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WERE FROM IXTEPEC 
IN OAXACA MEXICO...WHICH HAS SHOWN WINDS DIMINISHING FROM 40 KT 
WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT AT 1300 UTC TO 25 KT GUSTS TO 35 KT AT 2100 
UTC. FOR THIS REASON...A STORM WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ANOTHER
18 HOURS OR SO UNTIL TUE MORNING. SEAS PEAKED AT AROUND 18 FT.

NE WINDS TO 20 KT HAVE BEGUN TO FUNNEL THROUGH COASTAL TERRAIN 
NEAR THE GULF OF FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO AS THE WIND SURGE FROM A 
GOLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN MOVES FURTHER SOUTH. FRESH 
TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE GULFS OF FONSECA AND 
PAPAGAYO THROUGH WED. THE GULF OF PANAMA WILL SEE WINDS TO 20 KT 
BY EARLY TUE MORNING.

$$
MUNDELL