000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130938
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON DEC 13 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 06N77W TO 
05N95W TO 07N110W TO 06N120W TO 09N132W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS E OF 82W TO THE 
COAST OF COLOMBIA.

...DISCUSSION...
A WEAKENING 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED JUST N OF THE 
AREA NEAR 34N127W EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST WATERS 
COVERING ROUGHLY THE REGION N OF 15N AND W OF 110W. ONLY A SMALL 
AREA OF FRESH NE TO E TRADEWINDS OF 20 KT EXIST ON THE SOUTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BETWEEN 09N AND 17N W OF 130W. THESE 
WINDS SHOULD RELAX EVEN FURTHER DURING THE NEXT DAY AS THE 
SURFACE HIGH MOVES TOWARD THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA AND 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKEN. A STATIONARY FRONT IS NEAR 30N140W 
AND WILL REMAIN OUT OF DISCUSSION AREA BEFORE DISSIPATING LATER 
TODAY. 

LOOKING AHEAD...A 1005 LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE NW 
PORTION OF THE AREA BY WED BRINGING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND 
SEAS. CURRENTLY...MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN AREA OF SW WINDS 
IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE AND BUILDING SEAS UP TO 10 FT N OF 27N 
AND W OF 130W.

AN EARLIER WINDSAT PASS SHOWED NW WINDS OF 20 KT THROUGH THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 28N THANKS TO A HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER 
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THESE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE QUICKLY TO 
BELOW 20 KT WITHIN ABOUT 12 HOURS. 

A SUBSIDING NW SWELL AFFECTS MUCH OF THE REGIONAL WATERS S OF 
20N W OF 100W. THESE SWELLS WILL RELAX AND MOST OF THE FORECAST 
AREA...EXCEPT THE LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY GAP WINDS...WILL HAVE 
SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT AND WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. 

GAP WINDS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO 
THE NW CARIBBEAN. WINDS ARE FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS 
AND INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. IXTEPEC IN OAXACA MEXICO 
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 TO 45 KT WITH GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 
KT FOR NINE HOURS. AT 0600 UTC...SHIP C6FR3 MOVING ACROSS THIS 
GULF REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 FT VERIFYING THE PRESENCE OF 
STORM FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A STORM 
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA UNTIL 18Z. AFTER 
THAT...EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 17 FT LATER TODAY. 

AS THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WIND SURGE CONTINUES TO MOVE 
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...WINDS FUNNELING 
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AMERICA PASSES WILL PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG 
WINDS OVER THE GULFS OF FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO TODAY AND THE GULF 
OF PANAMA BY EARLY TUE. 

$$
GR