000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130359
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON DEC 13 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 06N78W TO 
05N98W TO 07N111W TO 09N128W.  AXIS AGAIN CONTINUES FROM 09N133W 
TO 08N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS 
W OF 137W AND WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS E OF 82W.

...DISCUSSION...
A WEAKENING 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED JUST N OF 
THE AREA NEAR 34N129W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER 
FORECAST WATERS TO 17N107W AND SOUTHWESTWARD TO BEYOND 28N140W. 
ONLY A SMALL REGION OF FRESH NE TO E TRADEWINDS OF 20 KT EXIST 
BETWEEN 09N AND 17N W OF 135W.  THESE SHOULD RELAX EVEN FURTHER 
DURING THE NEXT DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH AND THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT WEAKEN.  A STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED JUST NW OF OUR AREA 
SHOULD REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE OF THE BOUNDARY BEFORE DISSIPATING BY 
LATE MONDAY.

A SUBSIDING NW SWELL AFFECTS MUCH OF THE REGIONAL WATERS S OF 
20N W OF 100W.  THESE SWELLS WILL RELAX AND MOST OF THE FORECAST 
AREA...EXCEPT THE LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY GAP WINDS...WILL HAVE 
SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT AND WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. 

GAP WINDS...
A STRONG AND FAST MOVING COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS THE GULF OF 
MEXICO AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  WINDS ARE FUNNELING 
THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.  
MEXICAN STATION MMIT HAS NOW EXPERIENCED WINDS 40 TO 45 KT WITH 
GUSTS 50 TO 55 KT FOR NINE HOURS.  WHILE NO IN-SITU MARINE 
OBSERVATIONS ARE AVAILABLE...IT IS ANALYZED THAT THE MARINE HIGH 
WINDS HAVE CONTINUED AND ARE CLOSE TO STORM FORCE IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC.  THE GFS PEAKS THE EVENT WITH 10 M SURFACE WINDS OF 
45 KT BETWEEN 03 AND 06Z ON THE 13TH...THE UKMET 40 KT BETWEEN 
06 AND 18Z...THE NAM 40 KT AT JUST 06Z...NOGAPS 35 KT AT 12Z 
ONLY...AND ECMWF 35 KT BETWEEN 00Z 13TH AND 12Z 14TH.  GIVEN THE 
WINDS ARE ALREADY HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED...WILL GO WITH STORM 
WARNING BEGINNING IN 6 HR...AND DROPPING BELOW THAT THRESHOLD BY 
24 HR...AND DROPPING BELOW GALE BY 48 HR.

AS THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WIND SURGE CONTINUES TO MOVE 
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...WINDS FUNNELING 
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AMERICA PASSES WILL PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG 
WINDS OVER THE GULFS OF FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO BY MONDAY AND THE 
GULF OF PANAMA BY TUESDAY MORNING.  THE GULF OF PANAMA EVENT HAS 
THE POSSIBILITY OF REACHING GALE FORCE IN ABOUT TWO DAYS...BUT 
THIS IS NOT PREDICTED AT THIS TIME.

FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO FUNNELING THROUGH THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA BECAUSE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE 
WESTERN UNITED STATES.  WHILE NO IN-SITU OBSERVATIONS ARE 
AVAILABLE...IT IS ANALYZED TO BE JUST BELOW GALE FORCE.  THESE 
WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE QUICKLY TO BELOW 20 KT WITHIN ABOUT A DAY.

$$
LANDSEA