000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121547
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN DEC 12 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 06N77W TO 
07N83W TO 05N94W TO 09N124W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM N AND 90 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 125W 
AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...
A WEAKENING 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES LOCATED JUST N OF AREA 
NEAR 32N128W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING OVER FORECAST WATERS SE TO 
19N112W AND SW TO BEYOND 26N140W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 
THIS FEATURE AND LOWER PRESSURE NEAR THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING 
FRESH TRADE WINDS OF 20 KT FROM 08N TO 16N W OF 130W. THE FRESH 
TRADES WILL DECREASE IN AREAL EXTENT THROUGH 48 HOURS AS THE 
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
WEAKENS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE 
OF HIGH PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEST OF THE AREA IS 
SUPPORTING FRESH 20 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS N OF 27N W OF 135W. THIS 
COLD FRONT WILL JUST BARELY CLIP THE FAR NW PORTION OF AREA 
TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING THROUGH LATE MON.

A SUBSIDING NW SWELL AFFECTS MUCH OF THE REGIONAL WATERS S OF 
25N W OF 100W. WITHIN 48 HOURS...8 FT SEAS W OF 105W WILL BE 
CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA FROM 09N TO 17N W OF 135W IN NE 
TRADEWIND SWELL. 

GAP WINDS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO 
WILL REACH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS AFTERNOON. A WIND SURGE IN 
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS 
INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC RAPIDLY INCREASING WINDS TO NEAR 
GALE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN TO GALE FORCE BY EARLY EVENING. 
ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 18 FT IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE 
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TUE MORNING. 

AS THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WIND SURGE CONTINUES TO MOVE 
EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH 
THE CENTRAL AMERICA PASSES WILL PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS 
OVER THE GULFS OF FONSECA...PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA BY LATE MONDAY 
NIGHT. 

$$
AL