000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120919
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN DEC 12 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 08N78W TO 
05N100W TO 07N110W TO 09N123W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS NEAR 09N126W...AND NEAR 07N129W.

...DISCUSSION...
A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES LOCATED JUST N OF AREA NEAR 32N128W 
DOMINATES THE FORECAST WATERS ROUGHLY N OF 15N W OF 110W. FRESH 
TRADE WINDS OF 20 KT ON THE PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH ARE EVIDENT 
ON A RECENT WINDSAT PASS AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS. THE FRESH TRADES 
WILL DECREASE IN AREAL EXTENT THROUGH 48 HOURS AS THE HIGH 
PRESSURE WEAKENS WHILE MOVING TOWARD THE NW CORNER OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA. SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND THE WINDSAT PASS ALSO 
REVEAL SE TO S WINDS OF 20 KT N OF 25N AND W OF 130W DUE TO THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES RIDGE AND A COLD FRONT 
LOCATED W OF REGION. THIS COLD FRONT WILL CLIP THE FAR NW 
PORTION OF AREA ON SUN AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH LATE MON.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE REGIONAL 
WATERS W OF 110W. THE SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT 
48 HOURS...WITH SEAS ABOVE 8 FT LIMITED TO SOUTH OF 15N AND W OF 
130W.

GAP WINDS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO 
WILL DELIVER ANOTHER GAP WIND EVENT THROUGH THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC LATER TODAY AS COLDER...DRIER AIR OFF THE SW GULF OF 
MEXICO FILTERS THROUGH THE GAP. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH GALE 
FORCE AT 13/0000 UTC...AND WILL REMAIN IN THIS RANGE THROUGH 48 
HOURS. ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 15 OR 16 FT IN ABOUT 24 
HOURS. 

EXPECT ALSO AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE GULFS OF 
FONSECA...PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AS THE ABOVE 
MENTIONED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN MON 
THROUGH TUE FOLLOWED BY STRONG NLY WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL 
FUNNEL THROUGH THE CENTRAL AMERICA PASSES BRINGING FRESH WINDS 
OVER THESE GULFS.

$$
GR