000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111539
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT DEC 11 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS 05N77W TO 07N83W TO 
04N94W TO 09N120W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
WITHIN 60 NM N OF AXIS E OF 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG WITHIN 120 NM N AND 60 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 
130W. 

...DISCUSSION...
A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 32N128W EXTENDS A 
RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST WATERS TO THE SE TO 18N112W AND TO THE 
SW BEYOND 26N140W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH 
PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE NEAR THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING FRESH 
TRADE WINDS FROM 08N TO 25N W OF 125W. THE FRESH TRADES WILL 
DECREASE IN AREAL EXTENT THROUGH 48 HOURS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE 
WEAKENS WHILE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY. SE TO S WINDS OF 20 
KT ARE ALSO NOTED N OF 27N AND W OF 135W DUE TO THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES RIDGE AND A COLD FRONT LOCATED W 
OF AREA. THIS COLD FRONT WILL CLIP THE FAR NW PORTION OF AREA ON 
SUN AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH LATE MON.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL...WAVE PERIODS BETWEEN 14 TO 16 SECONDS... 
WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 10 TO 12 FT CONTINUES TO AFFECT 
MUCH OF THE REGIONAL WATERS W OF 110W. THE SWELL WILL GRADUALLY 
SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH SEAS ABOVE 8 FT LIMITED TO 
SOUTH OF 14N AND W OF 100W.

GAP WINDS...
WINDS OVER TH GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 
KT BY THIS AFTERNOON. FRESH  WINDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN 
CONTINUE TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE CENTRAL AMERICA PASSES BRINGING 
FRESH WINDS OVER THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO...AND PANAMA. WINDS OVER 
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST...WHICH 
WILL LEAD TO WINDS DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT FOR THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO IN 12 HOURS...AND THE GULF OF PANAMA IN 18 HOURS. 

LOOKING AHEAD...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF 
MEXICO THIS WEEKEND. COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT 
WILL FUNNEL TROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
STARTING SUN NIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ANOTHER GALE 
FORCE WIND EVENT OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 

$$
AL