000 AXPZ20 KNHC 110347 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SAT DEC 11 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS FROM 08N84W TO 04N98W TO 09N116W TO 06N131W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS FROM 115W TO 130W. ...DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL LAYERS REMAIN FAIRLY DRY OVERALL WITH MOISTURE CONFINED TO AREA FROM 05N TO 20N BETWEEN 110W AND 130W. BROAD ANTICYCLONE ALOFT OVER WESTERN PART OF BASIN SUPPORTS SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTER 1026 MB NEAR 30N130W. SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE TO 12N103W FORCING FRESH N-NW WINDS ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA W COAST AND MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE W OF 120W FROM 08N TO 25N. BOTH EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AS HIGH PRES WEAKENS AND FORCED NE BY COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. SUBSIDING LONG PERIOD SWELLS SPREADING SE FROM LOW PRES CENTER WELL NW OF BASIN EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 8 FT BY LATE SUN. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE... HIGH PRES OVER GULF OF MEXICO MOVE OVER INTO WRN ATLC WITH VEERING WINDS ACROSS BAY OF CAMPECHE CUTTING OFF SOURCE THAT PROMPTED GALE WIND EVENT ACROSS GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. FRESH TO STRONG NE WIND LINGER THROUGH SAT DIMINISHING TO MODERATE BREEZE SUN. STRENGTHENING LOW PRES 1008 MB OVER NW COAST OF COLOMBIA FORCING STRONG N-NE WINDS ALONG CARIBBEAN COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. WINDS PERCOLATE THROUGH GAPS AND SURGE ACROSS GULFS OF FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO AND IN A SIMILAR WAY INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA. ALTHOUGH LOW PRES REMAINS AS STRONG...HIGH PRES OVER SW N ATLC DRIFT E AND RELAXES PRES GRADIENT EFFECTIVELY DIMINISHING WINDS BY LATE SAT AND SUN. LOOKING AHEAD...ANOTHER TEHUANTEPEC EVENT INDUCED BY STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS GULF OF MEXICO EXPECTED FOR LATE SUN. COLD AIR ADVECTION IN WAKE OF FRONT FUNNEL TROUGH CHIVELA PASS INTO GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. MODEL GUIDANCE POINT TO QUICK INCREASE IN N WINDS TO GALE FORCE BY SUN NIGHT. $$ WALLY BARNES