000
AXPZ20 KNHC 102158
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI DEC 10 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS FROM 09N84W TO 04N100W TO 08N117W TO 07N133W TO 08N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS FROM 110W TO 
130W. 

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LAYERS REMAIN FAIRLY DRY OVERALL WITH MOISTURE 
CONFINED TO AREA FROM 06N TO 23N BETWEEN 110W AND 130W.  BROAD 
ANTICYCLONE ALOFT OVER WESTERN PART OF BASIN SUPPORTS SURFACE 
HIGH PRES CENTER 1025 MB NEAR 30N131W.  SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE 
TO 18N114W FORCING FRESH N-NW WINDS ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA W 
COAST AND MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE W OF 133W FROM 12N TO 25N.  
BOTH EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRES WEAKENS AND IS FORCED NE 
BY COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW.

SUBSIDING LONG PERIOD SWELLS SPREADING SE FROM LOW PRES CENTER 
WELL NW OF BASIN EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 8 FT BY LATE SUN.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES OVER GULF OF MEXICO MOVE OVER INTO WRN ATLC WITH 
VEERING WINDS ACROSS BAY OF CAMPECHE CUTTING OFF SOURCE THAT 
PROMPTED GALE WIND EVENT ACROSS GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.  FRESH TO 
STRONG NE WIND LINGER THROUGH SAT DIMINISHING TO MODERATE BREEZE 
BY SUN.

STRENGTHENING LOW PRES 1009 MB OVER NW COAST OF COLOMBIA FORCING 
STRONG N-NE WINDS ALONG CARIBBEAN COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA.  
WINDS PERCOLATE THROUGH GAPS AND SURGE ACROSS GULFS OF FONSECA 
AND PAPAGAYO AND IN A SIMILAR WAY THE GULF OF PANAMA.  ALTHOUGH 
LOW PRES REMAINS AS STRONG...HIGH PRES OVER SW N ATLC DRIFT E 
AND RELAXSES PRES GRADIENT EFFECTIVELY DIMINISHING WINDS BY LATE 
SAT AND SUN.  

LOOKING AHEAD...ANOTHER TEHUANTEPEC EVENT INDUCED BY STRONG COLD 
FRONT MOVING ACROSS GULF OF MEXICO EXPECTED FOR LATE THIS 
WEEKEND.  COLD AIR ADVECTION IN WAKE OF FRONT FUNNEL TROUGH 
CHIVELA PASS INTO GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STARTING SUN NIGHT.  MODEL 
GUIDANCE POINT TO NEW GALE EPISODE BEYOND FORECAST PERIOD.

$$
WALLY BARNES